Seth Michael Steele

With only 3 prior cycles I do not believe Bitcoin’s behaviors are set in stone, it’s completely possible and in my opinion logical that if hyperbitcoinization were to occur, every cycle beforehand would be a statistical outlier. You can’t tell how well the dress fits until it’s all the way on. Maybe Bitcoin won’t be of its own influence until it encapsulates a significantly higher portion of the global economy. Maybe we are just getting a taste of structural Bitcoin as opposed to emotional, maybe the ones giving it structure are actually trying to shake all of that emotion out. I think this is short term bearish long term very bullish. Emotion and Bitcoin were never supposed to mix, if you wince at the beast it will eat you, but if you can look it in the eyes unfazed it will show you respect, not once, an everlasting contract. Bitcoin greed and fear being at 16 right now is like a full grown man being afraid of the dark…which may still be more understandable than a full grown man being scared of NGD. All I’m saying is S curves show diminishing returns until they don’t, noise isn’t just noise, it was once signal and it will be again when the crowd forgets: they always forget. Don’t miss the forest for the trees we are still in the prelude.

If the 4 year cycle is broken does that mean no more parabolic pumps? That brutally cheap sats aren’t coming back? Has Bitcoin been co-opted by the system it was built to destroy? Or is this just a small step in the elaborate process of BTC fixing the world? It’s possible institutions will smooth bears and accelerate bulls. Maybe the cycle didn’t break it’s just accelerated in its evolution, it’s always changed a little, this time it changed a lot. Bitcoin was built to win not to stay fringe. I can only control my own sats.

If the last two months have shown me anything it’s that I have no idea what the next two months have in store, but I will look back two months from now and have more sats than I have today. We are down 30% from the top. Dropping another 30% would put us at $60k, I don’t think that’s as likely as a 100% rally. I refuse to believe what we see is unhealthy, every stress test strengthens Bitcoin. I believe any gap between my expectations for Bitcoin and reality is simply suppression. The amount of catalysts and dollars printed doesn’t seem to correlate with the price of bitcoin as I’d typically expect, I attribute this to Bitcoin’s evolution, what I understood as the most dynamic index of global economic health and sentiment has seemingly become more so to an extent I have trouble recognizing. This state of perplexion may be the only constant I’ve witnessed when it comes to what to expect next. It wasn’t just finding bitcoin: every day since has been world changing. The value is something you have to look for, but finding new value in the same world is magic. The world is magic; most people can’t see it. Terminal debt spirals are only btc rocket fuel, holding fiat is like betting on the gas in your tank to increase thanks to no outside measures nor your own. Despite all the fear, let me tell you: bear markets are FUN all the LARPs let themselves out and the signal is immaculate, bears are always for building not panicking or taking your foot off the pedal. I made this bed and I’ll lie in it even if it’s just to piss them off.

There is no such thing as a free lunch; sometimes matters must be taken into your own hands. Nothing is infinite, but if it were, it would be useless. Let it all unwind. I buy and hold spot: me vs me. I could out hodl anyone in a slop n chop market and I could out sit anyone in a hot car: it’s basically just a sauna to me.

BTC is acting like it needs a catalyst, but I’ve heard such great news in the past 2 months: I refuse to believe it could possibly be priced in. Bitcoin isn’t the type of asset to be put in a box and forget about. We are putting it in a new box, but it will breakout again. Momentum isn’t what motivates me; it’s hope for a better future: straight lines aren’t as fun anyway.

Much like Satoshi’s coins: my conviction hasn’t budged since I found it. If you’ve been on the Bitcoin scene for longer than a half cycle then you’ve got Satoshi beat, give yourself a pat on the back for every hornet nest kick you’ve witnessed. You’ll be vulnerable if you can’t keep it fresh. Bitcoin was designed to evolve: prioritize the systems long term survival above all else. The protocol will endure. Evolve without panic; there’s really no rush.

Stacking more sats is nothing to fret over and neither are the dips. Some people see weakening momentum, I see oversold opportunity. There is no anticipation over here just accumulation.

Hearing $45k FUD really made me think, could another 50% drawdown be in store? Would that be max pain? I’d most definitely stack right through it with a smile on my face, but it’s definitely not the most enjoyable experience to ponder on. I do believe in dual pain however, going down to 45k might be even more painful than going above a quarter million…maybe there’s equal chance of either. Fair market value sits around $106k, bitcoin is undervalued and I’m aggressively accumulating, I shall continue to do so until I feel like the discount is gone…then it’s back to normal accumulation rates. When it gets quiet and engagement gets low I don’t slow my buying, in fact the sats stacked will grow.

It’s always been patience over profit chasing. I don’t mind sell offs, it’s like pruning a tree and getting upset about having less tree, you may have less tree after pruning bad branches, but it’s growth will be stronger and healthier. Weak branches out, stronger branches in; weak hands out, stronger hands in. Disorderly exit and orderly upside. How much weak handed supply can really remain? A year of chop, it’s beautiful. NGU or the lack there of can’t change: trust < incentives. Bitcoin fixes incentives and that is fixing the world in unpredictable ways. That’s why I haven’t even flinched when it comes to stacking in fact I turned it up a notch. I don’t think I’m the only one who’s turned it up a notch. Bring the pop, chop, or drop and I’ll bring the slop. Tis the season to shake out snowflakes for the hodl faithful. Call it what you want but don’t call it luck.

8 of the top 10 banks in the U.S. now offer bitcoin services: I’m bullish on this number…but…*checks notes*…some how there are still non believers. Bitcoin eating then becoming a digital credit market would be impressive technically and politically that simultaneously betrays the original social promise. It seems the only constant for bitcoin is its inevitability and 21 million hard cap. The dream has changed throughout the years, maybe the dream one day will only be NGU. NGU is no putrid dream either. That was essentially the American Dream: just a chance at NGU no matter who you were or where you came from. A dream of NGU is a dream of hope and a beacon of it. We can turn Bitcoin into the hardest money the world has ever seen and then wrap it in the fractional reserve paper we meant to obsolete. At least the base layer can’t be stopped. It’s proudly horrifying along with the rest of humanity.