Lyn Alden

Just saw someone wearing a mask while driving alone in their car. In the year of our lord 2025.

Here's the "No BS" macro news for today. -The Fed projected, back in early 2024, that they would likely end balance sheet reduction around this time and transition toward gradually increasing their balance sheet in line with nominal GDP (so that banks' fractional reserve lending remains unaffected with current regulations). -It got pulled forward slightly, perhaps two or three months, by the government shutdown overfilling the Treasury cash account (i.e. sucking cash out of the broader financial system). -The Fed previously announced they would stop reducing their balance sheet. Today they said they would start gradually increasing it. Powell said the baseline is $20-$25 billion per month, but due to current liquidity shortages and April tax day (which drains liquidity), they plan to increase it by $40 billion per month through April (which afterward in May, conveniently, is when Powell will be replaced as chairman with a presumably more dovish chairman). -They're focusing on printing money to buy short-term duration Treasuries, not long-term. This is for the financial system, not economic stimulus per se, and so they won't be calling it QE. -The Fed will now be structurally expanding their balance sheet while inflation is above their own target. -This is a gradual print scenario. It's bullish for liquidity and liquidity-correlated assets, in general. It's not explosively bullish, but it does lean dovish. -Nothing stops this train.

There's an annual contest for indie-published fantasy books called SPFBO, and it's been running for ten years now. When looking for indie novels to read, that's not a bad list to start from. Anyway, here's a review of "The Thief Who Pulled on Trouble's Braids", which was the first winner of that contest. It's the first in a five-book series that focuses on a thief named Amra Thetys. Amra is kind of your typical anti-hero thief; she grew up in a rough spot and does some bad stuff but basically has a heart of gold. At about 200 pages, the book is a short read, but I guess the series as a whole is like one 1,000+ page book. I liked the first half quite a bit. It's fast-paced and gets right into the story. The prose is solid enough. Amra quickly gets pulled by her friend into some criminal mess, with some dark omens sent her way, and we go from there. In particular, a bloodwitch came up to her on the street once she got pulled into the mess, and said: "I See blood, and gold," she said, her voice gone all hollow. "I Hear a mournful howl. Fire and Death are on your trail, girl, and behind them the Eightfold Bitch makes her way to your door. One of Her Blades has noticed you. But will it find your hand, or your heart? Unclear, uncertain..." Amra was freaked out, because bloodwitches can turn your blood to rust and see the future. So I was like, "alright, you've got my attention." But the second half was somewhat disappointing. Things were just kind of happening, there was a rapidly expanding character list, magic kind of just did whatever it needed to, and I wasn't very emotionally attached to anyone. The ending was okay, but it primarily set up the rest of the series. I probably won't pick up the second book in the series anytime soon, though from the ratings and how this one went, I could imagine the five of them all being a fun enough read.

Mt Everest had its first documented climb in 1953. The first person went to space in 1961. It's kind of crazy to think about how "new" mankind's spread over the world is. My father was already a teenager the first time someone climbed Everest, and in his twenties by the time someone went to space. If we start the "modern era" as roughly coinciding with the telecommunications age (ie the dawn of the cross-continental telegraph in the1860s), it's less than two consecutive human lifetimes old. Everything is new.

Whenever we go to the local Italian restaurant, the waitress asks if we want dessert or coffee afterward. I know it's a common thing, but for the life of me I don't know why anyone would want coffee after a big meal at night.

My December public macro newsletter has been published. You can check it out here:

Lyn Alden

The So-Called "Debasement Trade"

December 3, 2025 This newsletter issue analyzes what has become known as “the debasement trade” to see where it is true, and where it i...