China Morning Missive
First there was the announcement that President Trump would be permitting Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China. Then came the news of China’s trade surplus clocked in at $1.0trillion over the first 11 months of the year.
The reaction out of the Beltway to these two developments was apoplectic. Just wait for the reactions once the ASML restrictions are lifted. That’s what China really wants, and it’ll happen sooner than most observers expect.
To the reactions, it is all very understandable, but I would point out that these are just two outcomes reflective of a fundamental shift in global power. It isn’t that this is a new trend either. All that is slowly underway is a realization among the Washington powerbrokers that this is no longer just a philosophical debate.
For a decade there was analysis by “Senior Fellows” and lengthy diatribes throughout Foreign Affairs magazine and elsewhere. China was said to be an existential threat to the American way.
I agreed. A constructure form of engagement, beginning with a harsh acceptance of the threat posed, was required.
And yet, nothing was done, beyond talking and op-eds to wax poetically on the geopolitical threat.
Now here we are and America now finds itself well past the point of no return.
All that these two events highlighted above indicate is a direction of travel. There will be more public consternation and, unfortunately, greater externalizing of the issue. Rather than seeing the world as it is and sifting energies towards hyper competition, China will be labeled an enemy of the State and with that will come far greater aggressive tendencies.
Finally, and just as a quick update, the current TikTok “ban/divest” deferment expires next Tuesday, December 16th. This will have been the fourth such deferment and the entire affair is coming up on a full year since the Supreme Court ruling. No matter the political posturing by the Trump team, the TikTok divestiture remains outstanding.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-hawks-say-trump-approved-nvidia-chip-sales-china-will-supercharge-its-2025-12-09/