China Morning Missive There was a bit of cope out of Silicon Valley last week. Uber tech titan, Mark Andressen, went on an autistic tirade over the future of robots and the urgent need for American policy makers to redirect resources and “reinvent manufacturing for the AI age”. When I stumbled across his comments, my mind immediately went to “it’s already too late”. Much as I’ve shared in these Notes before, what China has done with EVs will be repeated in the race for dominance in robotics. It is simply an issue of vertical integration. China just has the individual processes already in place not to mention the availability to all critical components. China is working with the benefit of having already moved into forms of power generation and the ability to convert that power into actual useful, commercial applications. The United States remains mired in knowing there’s a problem and only looking to find where to place blame. There are countless committee hearings and podcast soliloquies discussing the issue at hand. There’s, as of yet, been no meaningful action taken. Time is quickly running out and there is no better evidence of this than the soon-to-be public offering of Unitree Robotics. Haven’t heard of the company? You’re not alone. Think of it this way. Are you familiar with a company called DJI Technologies? Well, what that company is to the global drone market, Unitree is now positioned to be for the humanoid robotics market. Granted, in the example of Unitree, the company remains in the early stages of building – at scale – production. Once the company completes its IPO it will still only be valued at $7.0billion. For reference, Apple spent $25.0billion in share buybacks in just the second quarter alone. As an aside, that comparison does make you wonder what Apple could have achieved if it reinvested cashflow rather than buy back shares to support the stock price. That is a story for another day. What I find to be the critical point here though isn’t the IPO or its size, rather it is the direction of travel. The Chinese are executing on policy directives and rapidly building out a host of future industries. Again, I will stress, it all comes down to vertical integration. None of this infrastructure is even close to being built in America.
China Morning Missive The Chinese Ministry of Finance has been on a tear over the past two weeks issuing bonds and raising billions in the process from global investors. What has been the most interesting aspect of this exercise, however, has been the sheer demand for Chinese paper. There was the USD4.0billion issuance divided evenly between a 3 and 5-year tranche. Demand came in at USD118.0billion. Then this week there was a EUR4.0billion deal this time evening split between a 4 and 7-year tranche. Here, demand came in at EUR100billion. Demand for the Chinese bonds was so significant that the securities ended up being priced at just two basis points above US treasury bonds of a similar tenor. It would seem as though China is one again “investable” considering that sovereign issuance had been scant and, at times, nonexistent over the past four years. There is a greater game at play here beyond a government looking to tap investor demand. China is returning to the global sovereign debt market with the expressed purpose of resuming the campaign of deepening the offshore yield curve so as to provide pricing benchmarks for Chinese corporates. Expect to see a host of large Chinese enterprises test the global markets throughout 2026. Demand for sovereign risk is one thing. Demand for Chinese corporate risk remains a distinct unknown. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-smashes-bond-sale-records-093818568.html