China Morning Missive This, the Taiwan issue, is where the concept of a fourth communique comes into play. It’s also high time that the traditional media outlets finally began connecting what have been very obvious dots. With each passing day, those at the levers of power in DC are coming to the realization that China has a stranglehold on the “Grand Bargain” negotiations. Frankly, this has been the dynamic ever since both parties slapped triple digits tariffs on each other. No matter the overwhelming evidence, the Beltway simply ignored this reality. You can even see this on display when Sec Bessent noted China had made “aggressive asks” during the recent Madrid round of talks. Taiwan was undoubtedly one of those asks. The same, too, for a lifting of certain tariffs and export controls. The American side sought to hold firm on its positions. The Chinese side would have just shrugged and played for time with the complete knowledge that there is nothing the Trump team can actually do. Access to rare earths remain a sticking point. Now there’s daily handwringing over China’s refusal to purchase soybeans. Understand that these are just the tip of the spear. There are dozens of pressure points China can apply. American capitulation is simply a matter of time. But China isn’t just asking for well choreographed speeches and platitudes. This is where a fourth communique comes into play. American administrations come and go and the policies of one can be reversed by another. Beijing knows this all too well and for any material agreement to be reached will require a codified (fourth communique) agreement. The politics for the Trump team are abysmal. Then again, so is a cascade of farmer bankruptcies not to mention a host of other second and third order effects. Pick your poison, right? What this WSJ piece does highlight is (finally) a recognition of just how strong China’s position is in these negotiations. The end game is know. All that remains is how Washington will end up spinning the outcome. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-xi-talks-china-taiwan-8ed82d1b?st=o3Hnq4&reflink=article_copyURL_share
The Chinese game MahJong, specifically the Shanghai version, provides some unique cultural insights. Uploading the video below for those interested.
China Morning Missive There is always more that hides behind the public veil. Recall when the US and China met in London in June. The parties left the talks and the entire conversation centered on China’s agreement to resume exports of rare earth materials. There was zero commentary as to what the US side would deliver in return. Within a matter of a single week the quid pro quo became known. The US would begin lifting certain technology related export controls. This very same dynamic is at play with the recent trade talks in Madrid. While the focus has centered on China approving the sale of the US TikTok platform, there’s been zero focus on what the US would deliver in return. Now we have the highly expected move by China to begin purchases of American soybeans. As background, China is the single largest export market for American soybeans with, for reference, $13bn in exports, or roughly 20% of all production, in 2024. For this year, China has purchased zero American soybeans. The harvest has now arrive and the farmers are desperate. China has now returned to the table and it is highly likely for a large purchase agreement to be announced in the coming weeks. That then means China has “delivered” for American twice. All of this begs the question. What is it that the Trump team has delivered which would be of an equitable value. I will say it again. The deliverable is Taiwan.
Bloomberg.com
US Crop Markets Rise as Chinese Trade Envoy Meets US Delegation
Most US crop markets traded higher following an announcement from China that a trade envoy from the nation met with a delegation of US political an...
Call schedule at 9am EST less than an hour from now. Expecting Trump and Xi to announce a TikTok deal and even a sizable buy of soybeans by China. Question remains …. What does China get in return? An announced trip to China by Trump at the end of October is my best guess. Behind the scenes though, China will get a recommitment of the One China policy. TikTok for Taiwan essentially.
Bloomberg.com
Trump, Xi to Hold Call as TikTok, Tariffs and Nvidia Loom Large
A call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is underway, in a discussion that promises to determine the fate of TikTo...
Here’s a fun fact. Enemy of the State - the movie - came out in 1998. And look where we are as a society today.
Have a great story to share on IMF voting rights. Just swamped with work today. Let’s just say, the Beltway dragged its feet on the issue way back in 2010 and China just said “fine, I’ll do it myself”. Voila. In comes the AIIB, New Development Bank and more recently the SCO Interbank Consortium. image
For those interested in more long form China commentary, I also did this interview a couple weeks ago. I’m probably my own harshest critic. New to the podcasting guest world. This interview though is decent and as direct. Pretty succinct too.
Fantastic rip with @Marty Bent. My deepest appreciation. Aim was to be as balanced as possible and let me know your take @ODELL once you have the time to listen. Peace, namaste and have a great weekend Nostr fam.
Vlogging from Shanghai. @HODL Is this still a “thing” here on Nostr?
Seeing if this works.