Seeing if this works.
China Morning Missive Here is a picture that is the outcome of recent American foreign policy, primarily the Trump trade policy. A picture, as well, that will send the entirety of the Beltway consensus to lose its collective mind. If you are unaware, there is a large annual meeting taking place in China called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The group was established over 20 years ago and is meant to coordinate geopolitical agendas throughout what was termed by Halford Mackinder “The World Island”, or basically all of Eurasia. Essentially, it is the precursor to the “Global South”. What we have today, literally today, is a meeting on the sidelines between Xi, Putin and Modi with the later making his first trip to China in over seven years. China and India have had real issues over both trade and national borders. Now there has been a thaw. A total of 26 different nations will be in attendance as well. The point of all the commentary here is a demonstration that China planned accordingly and did so over multiple decades. There was a tremendous degree of luck involved too. America made a host of geopolitical missteps over the past two-plus decades allowing for China to gain ground. And now we have the Trump trade agenda so blatantly alienating India that there is now the real risk of a rapprochement with China. From a geopolitical perspective, this could easily go down as the single largest mistake made by Team Trump. While India is probably seeking to play both ends against the middle here and work to have Washington ease off the applied 50% tariffs, I just don’t see Trump – the man – willing to capitulate. He hates the TACO moniker and with that will be less than willing to negotiate. Now we wait for Wednesday and the even bigger Chinese military parade. I’ll get to that later in the week. Expect to see the headlines though. Washington is going to lose its mind once again. image
China Morning Missive So, the proverbial penny has dropped for Sam Altman. After months of publicly ignoring the very issue that was staring the man straight in the face, he has decided to come out and state – openly – that China is a competitive threat in the AI space. What I found even more surprising is that the decision by OpenAI to release an open weight model last week – which was universally panned by the LLM community – was the outcome of the aggressive Chinese open-source drive throughout this year. The fact remains. Altman is boxed in, as are all of the American AI models. You can either go for a platform which prioritizes profitability or a platform which seeks to achieve scale. You can’t do both. There is also the issue of applicability. A host of Chinese industries have deployed DeepSeek for the expressed purpose of enhancing productivity. It has been a slower process throughout America. And all of this has transpired in the span of less than one year. Altman is correct to be concerned. I’ve not even highlighted the issue of hundreds of billions of CAPX being thrown at the AI complex in America. There’s a saying that money can’t buy taste. I’d add that money, too, can’t buy – or build – a competitive moat. Not anymore and especially not in our digital world.
Finally back LIVE on Bloomberg HK. Great hosts. They ask the right questions and are open to topics which US business media outlets only dance around. image
China Evening Missive First there was Modi calling Lula yesterday. Now we have Xi and Putin getting on the phone. Personally, I have doubts that Trump and Putin are actually going to meet up as is being reported.
China Morning Missive Going with another quote this morning. The old reliable Macbeth, “it is a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing.” Thing is, while there is certainly found and fury, this time is does signify (inadvertently) something. Enormous fissures in the American led rules based international order. As I was saying just the other day. Recent moves made by the Trump team have ultimately played directly into the hands of the Chinese. While it may be the aim for Trump to take direct aim at the leaders of the BRICS organization, doing so – at this point in time – will be utterly fruitless. Much as is discussed on this platform, the only product America produces is currency, US dollars. A commodity that we all know is being debased at an ever-increasing rate. Countries such as China and Brazil produce actual commodities or critical end products all of which are in demand across the United States. The thinking in Washington is that, somehow, the American market is so valuable that it can be used to weaponizing trade to achieve non-economic geopolitical ends. The reality is now becoming quite clear. The Global South has seen this movie numerous times before. Only America’s “allies” have demonstrated a willing to bend the knee and capitulate. Those countries deemed “adversaries” have found a voice and are announcing to the world that they are unwilling to submit. You should all expect to see more of these sorts of moves in the coming weeks, and – quite frankly – throughout the course of the Trump presidency.
China Evening Missive Well, actions have consequences. Trump goes to the paint on India. In return, Modi announces a first trip to China in seven years. Expect more of these sorts of developments as the US maintains a “you’re either with us or with the terrorists” and China sits back and laughs. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-modi-visit-china-first-time-7-years-tensions-with-us-rise-2025-08-06/