China Afternoon Missive “A person often meets his destiny on the road he took to avoid it." - Jean de La Fontaine. This would be a very apropos quote based upon a series of geopolitical decisions made by Trump over the past week. We need no reminder, too, how overly obsessed Trump has been when it comes to the BRICS organization. I’d also just add that there is no such thing as a coincidence when it comes to geopolitical maneuvering. (B)razil: An executive order levying 50% tariffs on imports plus political demands placed on Lulu (R)ussia: Rather self-explanatory. Russia bad. Threats of additional sanctions now imminent. (I)ndia: The threat of 25% tariffs and a not so thinly veiled condemnation of ongoing ties with Russia. (C)hina: The Main Event …. and the recent Stockholm meeting ends in a stalemate. A deadline looms large. (S)outh Africa: The Oval Office clash and now Trump signaling that he won’t be attending the G20 meeting. For each of the points raised above, there have been individual media reports highlighting the details of each. I’ve yet to see any reporting that connects what are, to my eye, very obvious dots. With a number of announced trade deals (frameworks?), Trump is now clearly emboldened and with that has made the decision to shift focus and take on the BRICS. In doing so, however, what these individual actions actually achieve is the full vindication of the entire raison d'être of both the BRICS organization and, more informally, the Global South. These groups were created to build a community of nations aligned in the purpose of countering increased American intimidation, primarily economic coercion. With a few strokes of an Executive Order pen, Trump demonstrated just how prescient that thinking was. Disable access to the dollar SWIFT system. Appropriate hundreds of billions of FX reserves. Now we have the application of tariffs as a pressure tactic on nations to act in ways that are against their own sovereign interest. To mix my metaphors, this is a bridge too far and a bell that cannot be unrung. Honestly, if left alone and not provoked then fissures among the BRICS membership countries would have ultimately surfaced. It is no secret that these nations all have real, not to mention numerous, issues with each other. Patience, if applied, would have won out in the end. Patience, I’m afraid, is just not in the American vernacular. What is it that America can expect? Basically, steely determination by all Global South nations under the guidance and coordination of Chinese leadership. Bravo President Trump. While your aim in targeting BRICS is to maintain USD hegemony, actions such as these only increase the probability of the very outcome you are seeking to avoid.

Bloomberg.com

Trump Vows to Ramp Up India Tariffs in Escalation of Russia Spat

President Donald Trump said he would be “substantially raising” the tariff on Indian exports to the US over the Asian nation’s purchases of R...

China Morning Missive Trump is about to go nuclear on China. Apoplectic rage. Sure, there were comments made by both SecTres Bessent and Trade Rep Greer stating that the parties were on a solid footing to reach a deal. From experience, however, I can tell you that when the foreign party makes such statements publicly, the Chinese return with a requested change of the tentatively agreed to terms. For years I’ve advised clients, very large global companies, to expect last minute changes to deals that were considered all but completed. This is just a very normal practice among the Chinese. And why not. For 30 years this tactic has been applied and for 30 years the foreign parties capitulated rather than push back. Oh, they will complain incessantly, but they capitulate. So, here’s what you should expect. Behind the scenes, the Chinese are pushing for some sort of change in the terms negotiated in Stokholm. I suspect it has to do with the hardline approach Trump and his team are taking on purchases of Russian/Iranian oil. Bessent and Greer would have been operating under the assumption that this was already settled during last week’s meeting. The Chinese will respond by saying, actually we only agreed to consider the American position. All of this will be communicated to the Oval Office and, with the China deadline set for next week – August 12th – expect a tirade from Trump. The threat of massive +100% tariffs returning will be all over the headlines. This will be temporary. Trump and his team know that don’t have even a modicum of leverage in these negotiations. I have honestly seen this all play out before, multiple times. Never did I expect to see it play out on the global stage though. Fascinating to watch.

AP News

China pushes back at US demands to stop buying Russian and Iranian oil

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledges China's position on oil purchases but suggests an overall trade deal remains likely.

China Morning Missive Watch this space closely. You know what the Chinese did with EVs. Pure domination in just a handful of years. Expect the very same with the robotics industry. This entire shift to the fourth industrial revolution, with nearly all segments dominated by Chinese players isn’t being nearly addressed in traditional media. For the likes of the States and EU nations, those economies will receive a massive one, two punch. China and AI. Could be a very rough decade ahead.

Bloomberg.com

Robots Emerge as New Driver for China’s Tech Rally With 75% Jump

Chinese robotics stocks are drawing fresh market attention as investors look for new catalysts for the rally sparked earlier this year by DeepSeek�...