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Bitcoin Corridor - SpyMasterTrades

In the digital era, where people and algorithms increasingly transact exclusively by digital means, Bitcoin — with its increasing stock-to-flow r...

The 10-year/3-month #Treasury yield spread is about to print a reversal doji on the 6-month chart. Typically recessions (shaded in red) begin when this spread moves substantially higher. Earlier this year, the NY #Fed, using this chart as a recession predictor, placed the odds of a U.S. #recession starting by May 2024 at 70%. This was the strongest recession signal in over 40 years. See more here:

The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator

This model uses the slope of the yield curve, or the “term spread” between long- and short-term interest rates, to calculate the probability of...

A massive bearish shooting star is appearing on the quarterly chart of #SPY / #IWM The tail of the shooting star tagged the peak level reached during the Dotcom Bubble (depicted by the black line in the chart). It's likely that this ratio has peaked and is about to roll over. We may be at the start of what will be years of large-cap underperformance relative to small-cap. This does not necessarily mean that the Russell 2000 will rally from here on out, instead it's a warning that the large-cap stocks that comprise the SPY have a lot to lose in the coming recession -- even more than already hard-hit small-cap stocks. #SPX / #RUT / #smallcap / #mag7

The #Fed is preparing to pivot back to monetary easing right as #war begins to disrupt global supply chains.

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (also known as #DAOs) have immense potential to disrupt Wall Street and the current multinational corporate system. One of the biggest leaps forward will come when the means of production becomes increasingly controlled by DAOs. Wall Street is hardly prepared for a future where control of production is #decentralized. Rather than owning shares in a corporation that can be traded and controlled by #WallStreet, equity ownership of a DAO can be established through asset tokenization, built using smart contract logic, which eliminates the need for Wall Street to serve as a middleman for transactions or as the custodian of assets. Decentralization is already underway, with decentralized #finance protocols like #Uniswap and #AAVE already issuing tokens that in turn allow for decentralized control of their treasuries. Since these frameworks are built, in large part, on the #Ethereum network, #Ether will be increasingly demanded over time as the De-Fi space grows by orders of magnitude over the coming years and decades. Most legal systems do not provide sufficient infrastructure for the formation and existence of DAOs. Thus, inevitably, DAOs will come at odds with centralized governance. Yet, it remains to be seen how decentralized organizations can effectively be stopped. Certainly, #CBDCs will become an important tool.

A good trader is one who trades fiat currency for scarce assets.

Recessions and volatility spikes tend to occur when the SPY/TLT ratio plummets. Right now, the #SPY / #TLT ratio is printing a bearish shooting star all the way up on the quarterly chart (each candlestick is a 3-month period). Note how high this ratio has risen. It's nearly double the peak value reached in the lead-up to prior recessions. (The red-shaded areas highlight previous U.S. recessions). Never has the S&P 500 been as overvalued as it is now when compared against the 'risk-free asset' (long-duration U.S. Treasurys). In fact, the S&P 500 is so overvalued that the sell-off in 2022 merely brought the Shiller PE Ratio down to about the same level as the peak before the Great Depression. What concerns me the most about this SPY/TLT ratio chart is the unprecedented confluence of higher timeframe charts. The ratio is about to begin oscillating down on the monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, and yearly charts at the same time. My conclusion is that the coming recession will likely last quite a long time, or that it will come in waves as occurred during the stagflation of the 1970s (when several recessions occurred within the span of about 10 years). Although it's easy to believe the proposition that a soft landing has been achieved when the VIX is 12 and the SPY is near an ATH, be aware that higher volatility will ensue from the record-fast rate hiking cycle. There is always a long lag between when interest rates rise and when the broad economy is impacted. Many charts continue to confirm that strong stagflation is coming. While I am a stock market bull over the long term, I remain convinced that an economic storm is coming.

If you had held GBTC since its inception in 2015 instead of Bitcoin, you would have lost approximately 63% of the upside gains that #Bitcoin had during that period. This is in large part because of the high expense ratio that Grayscale charges #GBTC investors (2% per year). This is why we shouldn't get too excited about Bitcoin spot ETFs -- if the expense ratios are high, investing in Bitcoin will mostly enrich the financial institutions offering the ETF. This is more true for Bitcoin than for stock market or bond ETFs because Bitcoin does not pay a dividend that could offset the expense ratio. While the SEC may approve Bitcoin spot ETFs, it could also impose heavy regulatory compliance measures that increase administrative costs and drive up expense ratios. This in turn could diminish the effect of investing in a Bitcoin spot ETF over the long term.

Bullish Divergence is occurring on the daily chart of the VIX Bullish divergence on the #VIX implies volatility may soon increase, which of course, is bearish for the #SPY on the timeframe of the divergence. However, it is unusual for volatility to move substantially higher near the holidays when volume is muted. From a seasonality perspective, volatility typically increases beginning in early-to-mid January and generally tends to trend higher until about mid-March. #SPX / #Volatility / #Trading / #SP500

The Fed has a problem. When it mentions "end of hiking cycle" this happens. $GOLD / #Gold / #XAUUSD / $GLD / #Fed / #FOMC