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During the first oil shock in 1973, about 5 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 56 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 9% of the supply vanished. Oil prices roughly quadrupled. During the second oil shock in 1979, about 4 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 67 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 6% of the supply vanished. Oil prices nearly tripled. During the third oil shock in 1990, about 4.3 million barrels were removed from the global oil market. Daily global oil production was approximately 66 million barrels per day at the time, which means about 7% of the supply vanished. Oil prices more than doubled. If Iran were to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, it would remove a whopping 21 million barrels of oil from the global market. Today, global oil production is approximately 94 million barrels per day, which means about 22% of the worldwide oil supply could disappear. As we can see in the chart below, it would be the largest oil supply shock the world has ever seen… by far. image
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American support for Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War was the catalyst for the OPEC embargo, which caused the first oil shock. The oil price roughly quadrupled, from around $3 per barrel to about $12 in a matter of days. It immediately triggered an energy crisis. There were gas shortages and panic in the US as drivers sat in lines stretching for blocks, waiting to fill their gas tanks. The second oil shock followed in 1979 as crude prices nearly tripled. A large conflict in the Middle East was again the cause—the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent Iran-Iraq War. A third oil shock occurred in 1990 as Iraq invaded Kuwait, causing oil prices to more than double. Here’s the bottom line. Big Middle East wars are often catastrophic for global oil supplies. And supply disruptions cause price spikes. It’s a simple relationship. This isn’t surprising. Analysts estimate that over 40% of global oil exports come from the Middle East. Today, the Middle East is again on the cusp of a large regional war between Iran and its allies and Israel and its allies. The conflict could potentially be more destructive than the conflicts that caused the prior oil shocks.