Here's my latest episode with Jamie Coutts from Real Vision. YouTube: We talk about: -The liquidity situation Bitcoin currently finds itself in -The true impact of the dollar on risk assets -Why the term QE should be put to rest -What value to get from market indicators like the MOVE index -Why the sentiment among altcoin investors has been so ba

I just published a new read on Nostr! Bitcoin IS the asset class: There is a full-blown Bitcoin-linked stock makret developing Check it out: " target="_blank">https://highlighter.com/a/ [#Bitcoin](/t/Bitcoin) [#BTC](/t/BTC) [#Stockmarket](/t/Stockmarket) [#AssetClass](/t/AssetClass) [#MSTR](/t/MSTR) [#Strategy](/t/Strategy) [#Convertibles](/t/Convertibles) [#ConvertibleBonds](/t/ConvertibleBonds) View Article → https://highlighter.com/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqpwdalxssze42j7uhgvf99aw27p0fjaergrqz844py0ml32sesnyqythwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2ap0qqs5y6t5vdhkjm3df9fj6argv5kkzumnv46z6cmvv9ehxtt3vcur27tfnmmq5n

Also, here's my latest discussion with Ralf Kubli. Enjoyed this recent talk and given he has his expertise in tokenization, I couldn’t resist picking his brain on the highly contentious. YouTube:

#asknostr #nostrhelp @paul keating @ODELL Hey guys I‘d like to post long-form reads on nostr using highlighter. I run into the following problems: I cannot create my highlighter because publishing the event always fail. Can anyone help me🔥? Thanks

Why is $97k the "magical number" in Bitcoinland for now. It's got to do with Strategy's goal to qualify for the S&P 500. To qualify for the S&P 500, a company must meet several criteria, including: -Market Capitalization: At least ~$14.5 billion. -Profitability: Positive GAAP earnings over the last four quarters (with the most recent quarter also being positive). -Public Float: At least 10% of shares must be publicly available. -Liquidity & Sector Classification: Sufficient trading volume and being in an eligible sector. Srategy is meeting all of them, except for the profitability metric. Why the FASB Rule Change Matters: Before Q1 2025, companies had to report Bitcoin under old accounting rules that only allowed for impairment losses (but not unrealized gains). The new FASB rules (effective in Q1 2025) allow fair value accounting, meaning unrealized BTC gains count towards GAAP earnings. This helps profitability, a key S&P 500 requirement. So know. In light of some back-of-the-envelope calculation, we can state: An end of quarter close (March 31, 2025) with BTC at ≈ $96.5K keeps pre-Q1 holdings profitable but barely offsets Q1 losses. An end of quarter close with BTC at ≈ $97K ensures positive Q1 net income under FASB, increasing S&P 500 eligibility. An end of quarter close with BTC > $100K creates a much stronger profitability case, reducing uncertainty. So yes, $97K BTC is the real "safe" threshold right now. Should we move anywhere near this price level towards the end of March, things could become very interesting. Once the profitability threshold is met and eligibility for SPY inclusion increases, we should expect a lot of front-running (in MSTR) from market participants. This situation is obviously highly reflexive.. Well, I guess, we are here and ready for it 😁🔥

The Trump administration is actively reshaping the global monetary system—right now. YouTube: Most discussions on this topic focus solely on the U.S. perspective. But what about the rest of the world? That’s why I brought on Jim Bianco. Though he’s American, he’s uniquely positioned to challenge the U.S.-centric narrative and dive into the bigger picture: • How is this financial rewiring impacting Europe? • Is the U.S. tying itself in knots with contradictory policies? • Could America’s moves end up making the whole world poorer? We tackle these questions and more—don’t miss

Trump’s chaotic tariffs get all the headlines, but the real story is deeper: major monetary and geoeconomic shifts are underway. I broke it all down with @Josh Hendrickson —what’s happening, why it matters, and what it means for the future. This is a conversation I learnt a ton. And so will you! Check it out👇🏻🔥

Explaining the QT dynamics👇🏻 So QT is slowed down by 80%, from $25b to $5b. This means that the Fed is slowing down the pace at which it reduces its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds. Instead of letting a large amount of bonds roll off its balance sheet each month (which removes money from the financial system), it will now reduce them by only $5 billion per month. The $20 billion that the Fed was reducing each month but now isn’t effectively stays in the financial system. Said differently: the Fed is reinvesting the remaining $20 billion into new Treasuries, keeping that money circulating in the economy rather than tightening financial conditions. Why has the Fed decided to taper QT significantly just now? Well, it has to do with the debt ceiling dynamics. Because the debt ceiling in the United States has not been resolved (might only be resolved in late summer), the US government will most likely have to drain their bank account at the Fed (called TGA). With TGA falling, liquidity will be pushed into to the financial sector. What the Fed is concerned about is the time, when the debt ceiling is resolved and the TGA will need to be refilled. This will suck liquidity out of the commercial banking syshem. With QT significantly tampered and the Fed reinvesting the proceeds into government bonds, banks will supported and don‘t have to give up to many reserves for thr refill, helping to avoid any stress in the reserve system. One of the main drivers is that the Fed wants to avoid another 2019-style repo crisis, rather than having to be reactive and having to perform emergency OMOs all of a sudden. Here‘s what happened in 2019 as a recap 👇🏻 September 15, 2019 was a tax deadline, pulling about $100B out of markets as large corporations paid their dues to the IRS and funds flooded into the TGA. Meanwhile, the Treasury issued new T-Bills to rebuild cash reserves following the post-debt ceiling resolution in August, draining another $50-100B as big banks and institutions absorbed the securities. During this time, the Fed continued reducing its balance sheet (QT) down to $3.76T, but the balance sheet did not leave enough slack for unexpected cash drains to the system, such as corporate taxes and Treasury issuance. Also, reserves were largely hoarded by a few of the larger banking institutions due to Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules and a higher IOER at 2.1% vs the ON RRP rate of 1.7% - a 40 bp spread. This caused a liquidity crisis in the US repo market because bank reserves held at the Fed ($1.36T) were too low and repo lending dried up. Banks weren’t able to access each other’s reserves to fund daily operations. Now, this is what the Fef is avoiding this time around. Last point on this for now: As explained already, slowing the runoff of Treasuries reduces the supply in the market, pushing their prices higher (assuming demand remains steady) and lowering yields. Lower yields mean cheaper borrowing, increasing liquidity as investors seek higher returns in assets like stocks and crypto. Meanwhile, the Fed maintaining its MBS runoff isn’t a major concern for risk assets since MBS (mortgage backef securities) are more directly tied to the housing market, affecting home sales, construction, and refinancing. While MBS runoff does have indirect effects—reducing economic activity in housing-related sectors like home improvement retailers—the impact is more gradual. And we haven‘t seen that many runoffs because people are in low mortgage rates for long-term and are not refinancing into higher rates. For risk assets, a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield from 4.3% to 4% has a much bigger influence than a 0.2% rise in mortgage rates due to MBS pressure.

Latest LNMS interview👇🏻 YouTube: Truflation is the talk of the town! More and more people are using to gauge where markets are going. I wanted to know why it is special and set down with Stefan Rust, CEO and founder of Truflation. -How is Truflation different from traditional inflation metrics? -What makes it more accurate? -Why is it a leading signal, giving investor a potential edge? Check out the conversation🔥💪🏻

This was a true masterclass for me from Aahan, founder and CEO of Prometheus Research YouTube: youtu.be/6rg5sO914VU In very clear terms and steps, he explained to me how any serious investor needs to think and approach markets. We talked about the three basic concepts growth, inflation and liquidity and analyzed what components to look for in each. Enjoy and please retweet if you like the content🏋️‍♀️