The Hurdle Rate: From Inflation to CPI and Why It’s the Rate of Monetary Expansion You Should Be Watching
For years, inflation was the go-to measure of debasement. It was a simple and straightforward indicator: how much the value of your money was eroded by rising prices. However, in recent decades, this picture has become more complex, and a major shift has occurred in how we measure and think about debasement—leading to a critical misunderstanding about the true "hurdle rate" we need to beat to grow our wealth.
The Shift from Inflation to the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Historically, inflation was directly tied to the rate at which your purchasing power would shrink. If inflation was 3%, it meant your money would lose 3% of its value over the year, so you needed to earn at least a 3% return just to stay even. The hurdle rate was therefore straightforward: you had to beat inflation to preserve the real value of your wealth.
However, over time, the way inflation is measured has evolved. Today, most people rely on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the standard gauge for inflation. While the CPI still tracks price changes, it has been adjusted over the years to reflect only a certain basket of goods and services, which may not fully capture the real costs that individuals face, especially in areas like housing, healthcare, and education.
The CPI has become a much lower figure than the true rate of debasement. Why? Because it reflects a "basket" of goods that might not account for rapid price increases in the things that matter most to most people. In short, the CPI no longer reflects the true rate at which your purchasing power is being eroded. This adjustment has led to a massive underestimation of the real hurdle rate.
The Real Rate of Debasement: The Rate of Monetary Expansion
So, what’s really happening behind the scenes? The true rate of debasement is not simply the CPI—it’s the rate of monetary expansion. Central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve in the U.S., have been printing money at unprecedented levels, especially since the 2008 financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic. This expansion of the money supply leads to inflationary pressures that go far beyond what the CPI shows.
When central banks inject more money into the economy, it creates a devaluation of the currency, which increases the price of assets, goods, and services over time. This means that the rate of monetary expansion—the increase in the money supply—is actually a much more accurate reflection of the debasement you face, yet it’s rarely discussed in mainstream inflation metrics.
For example, if the money supply is growing at 7% annually, this rate of expansion will likely lead to broader inflationary pressures, even if the CPI is showing a much lower rate, say 2-3%. Thus, your real "hurdle rate" should take this monetary expansion into account.
Why Beating the Hurdle Rate is Crucial
If you don’t account for the true rate of monetary debasement (the rate of money supply expansion), you’re likely underestimating the returns you need to protect your wealth. In a world where central banks are continuously increasing the money supply, you need to earn returns that outpace this growth to avoid falling behind.
Let’s say the rate of monetary expansion is 7%, but the CPI is showing a modest 2% inflation. If you aim for a return just to match the CPI, you might think you’re doing well, but you’re actually falling behind the real rate of debasement, which is driven by the expansion of money itself. To truly preserve your purchasing power and grow your wealth, your investments need to exceed the 7% rate of monetary expansion, not just the 2-3% CPI inflation.
The Bottom Line
Understanding the hurdle rate isn’t just about beating inflation—it’s about beating the true rate of debasement, which is tied to the rate of monetary expansion. As the money supply continues to grow at a rapid pace, it’s more important than ever to calculate your returns against this broader and more insidious form of currency devaluation. If you’re only targeting the CPI, you’re underestimating the true risk to your wealth.
In today’s economic environment, simply beating the CPI isn’t enough. To stay ahead, you need to focus on the rate of monetary expansion and ensure your investments outpace that expansion. Failing to do so means you’re not just standing still—you’re losing ground, and that’s a real risk to your financial future. #Bitcoin
