Frank: Did you hear Sam Altman, the OpenAI CEO, got fired?
Smitty: Oh yeah? How come?
Frank: No one's really sure yet. The statement made it sound like he had lied to the board.
Smitty: A bigwig that lies? Aw Frankie, tell me it ain't so!
Frank: Haha, yeah, I guess no big surprises there. I wonder what he did.
Smitty (scrolling through his phone): It could be a lot of stuff, man. Looks like his sister made abuse allegations. This WorldCoin thing looks really scammy. It looks like OpenAI isn't open at all, there's a lot of criticism from the Open Source community after he closed the project. And here's a story about a group of people suing it over using their copyrighted material to train their bots. Plus all these things about AI safety and the arms race they kicked off.
Frank: Yeah, but hasn't that stuff been circulating for a while? This was so sudden. I wonder if it's some kind of corporate power games. A bunch of senior folks quit after he got fired. Maybe the board felt he was pushing things too far, too fast. Maybe they made AGI in the lab, or are close, and now they're scrambling over who gets to control it. That company's really unique, it's not a nonprofit, but also not quite a for-profit company. Must be doing something really valuable, I heard they pay their software guys almost a million dollars a year.
Smitty (still scrolling): A million! Just for pecking around on a computer! Damn, Frank, what would you do with that kind of bread?
Frank: I wouldn't have to slum it in this dump, that's for sure, haha.
#openai #samaltman #LLM #AI #corporategames #samaltmanfired #agi
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Shen: Let us play a game. Graham Allison calls it the Thucydides Trap.
There is a natural tension at play between an established power and one that is on the rise.
The established power cannot span the board whacking any rising power moles as soon as they poke their heads out. They will bleed too many resources. And this will upset other players enough to align against the establishment. But it also cannot sit idly, or it will be overtaken. It must choose the time and place correctly.
The rising power must muddy this effort. Cloud its rise in uncertainty. Use clever means to complicate the established power's calculus. Bide its time and hope that it soon becomes too costly for the established power to contest.
In a mirrored hall of uncertain information, bluffs, and counterbluffs, the core decision for the established power is this: To wait, and risk being overtaken. Or to act, and roll the dice.
What do you think human nature directs?
https://study.com/learn/lesson/thucydides-trap-overview-theory-historical-examples.html#:~:text=%22Thucydides%20Trap%22%20refers%20to%20the,better%20off%20by%20the%20conflict.
History has indicated a bias towards action, with 12 of 16 cases leading to war.
I hear you protest. "Shen you are writing about nuclear war. Conflict between China and the United States. This is not a game."
Life's theater finds its dress rehearsal in the world of games, where wisdom can be unbound.
#gametheory #china #unitedstates #thucydidestrap #perun #grahamallison #war #geopolitics
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Barklight: Happy Thanksgiving everyone, and a special thanks to my brothers and sisters serving overseas!
Buster: Woof!
Barklight: No, Buster, you can't have the whole turkey!
#happythanksgiving
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Gustav: Why I have always said things are uncertain in the short term:
On the one hand, Binance CEO Changpen Zhao has pled guilty to money laundering, and a $4.3 Billion dollar fine has been levied against his firm. The SEC has announced it is charging the large exchange Kraken with operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker, dealer, and clearing agency. Methodically, touchpoints like centralized exchanges are finding themselves in danger. The State cannot allow too much competition in several domains; the currency system is one. (Violence is notably another.)
On the other hand, Argentina, suffering under high inflation for some time, has elected a firebrand politician who professes a desire to tear down his country's Central Bank. Politicians are increasingly finding popular support by raising similar issues in their own countries. Global trading partners to the United States are becoming less willing to purchase US debt and are looking for opportunities to conduct trade exchange bilaterally, or via a neutral currency like Bitcoin. Cracks in the Petrodollar have all the potential for igniting contagion in money markets, globally. States also have an interest in being able to store value in the long term.
How the winds blow as these events unfold is anyone's guess. But the global debt situation is clear to all who are willing to face the discomfort of objectively looking at national balance sheets. There is a natural game unfolding where timing is the key factor. Defect too early and you will be punished. But defect at the right moment, and you will gain a significant strategic advantage.
As the Americans say, "You ain't seen nothing, yet."
#bitcoin #debt #argentina #kraken #binance #sec #petrodollar #javiermilei
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Skye: You ever see that meme of bragging online about "My uncle works at Nintendo..." and then some made up bs?
Well....
Wes says his cousin works for some Silicon Valley company, and got real mad over something going on there over the weekend. Some nerd shit that's got everyone really worked up apparently.
Anyways, Wes said his cousin was pulling stuff off the company servers over the weekend when shit was going cray, before he left for vacation.
The cousin is staying with Wes's family over Thanksgiving, and apparently got a bit drunk and told them about what was going on. No one really understood what he meant, or cared.
But Wes did. When his cousin passed out, Wes said he snagged the files and got 'em on a portable hard drive.
Sounds like total horseshit, doesn't it? That's what I said! 🤣🤣🤣
Wes said he'd prove it to me, so I let him come over to run it on my laptop. Bet was he'd do a month of my history homework vs Netflix and chill.
Holy shit, was he right, and good timing, too! ChatGPT's been having issues lately and I need to get a paper done ASAP. This App is next level! Way better than anything I've used before, and it can go on the Internet and look stuff up. I even got it to play some games.
So yeah, Wes won the bet. Wish he would have had more patience to let me play around with the App before he and I started playing around.
He made me promise not to tell anyone or share it. But you won't tell anyone, will you, Diary?
#openai #feeltheagi #chatgpt #llm #ai #agi #singularity #myuncleworksatnintendo
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???: A truly fascinating discussion, something that has forced me to fundamentally rethink my approach. Thank you @liv_boeree My company has been leveraging LLMs to make absolutely stunning breakthroughs in our game AIs. As has been leaked, our upcoming flagship has taken the sandbox concept to entirely new levels. Beta testers have been building lasting relationships with the NPCs in the game! Our playtest scores are through the roof, and this may be the most difficult business decision I have yet to face.
As described, I know that if we do not gain a first-mover advantage in this genre, we will be giving up so much to our competitors, we may be unable to recover. I am beginning to reach out to the leadership of other companies to explore the idea of a pause for evaluation. But also as described, Moloch will work to undermine our trust in each other, even if we can come to an agreement.
I am not worried about the NPCs in our game taking over the real world somehow. I understand their limits. I have a separate fear.
What I worry about is the effect this will have on people who enjoy our games. If you can get all of your social imperatives filled in the safety of a virtual world, is that good for us? As humans? To virtually fill your sense of achievement, of competition, of friendship, of love? With no real risk or stakes?
Even barring the addictive or destructive behaviors that can be found by taking games too far, do we run the risk of making real-world interactions too daunting for people to venture out into? Are we creating a civilization of anxious humans who flee to comfort and safety at the slightest conflict?
It is time for fundamental reflection.
#singularity #moloch #ai #videogame #addiction #mentalhealth #LLM #NPC
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Gustav: A few facts for your consideration.
Ratings Agency Moody's adjusted its outlook on US debt from 'stable' to 'negative' citing deficits and debt affordability. This follows a downgrade a few months ago from Fitch.
The US is running a soaring $1.7 trillion deficit. This is during "normal" times when the economy is supposedly fine.
The US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to attempt to tame the COVID-era inflation. During COVID the United States engaged in excessive money printing. However, they made the mistake of giving some of it to the public, which generated significant inflation. This is a mistake they are unlikely to repeat.
As the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it makes it increasingly difficult for the US Treasury to fund and roll over debt. Payments on interest alone have doubled and are beginning to approach $1 trillion per year. This is a rising portion of the US budget that produces zero benefit for its citizenry.
The most recent 30-Year Treasury auction went extremely poorly. Countries and financial institutions are indicating they are much less interested in holding US debt instruments. Primary Dealers are required to bid on US debt. It is possible to enter scenarios where debt issuance becomes tightly coupled, and the market ceases to function normally. This is an extremely brittle state for a financial system.
Each US citizen is now born into a system where they are in debt over $100k just for existing. Because of asset price inflation, they must incur crushing levels of debt to ever purchase a home. And if they wish to go to college, they are likely to pick up another crushing source of debt, which cannot even be discharged in bankruptcy.
For a global reserve currency, this is extremely difficult to escape. Will you flee to Euros or Yuan or Rubles? The trends are arguably as bad or worse.
There are alternatives. I suggest you take them before they begin closing the exits. I'm sure you can guess what my preferred Plan B is.
#planb #bitcoin #getoffofzero #keepstacking
#usdebt #debtslavery
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Shen: An excellent analysis, pay attention to the information concerning terrain. Terrain remains a fundamental factor of warfare. This has not changed for millennia.
What has changed is which terrain matters most. Although Israel won some breathing room in past conflicts in terms of more defensible geographic features, there is an aspect of terrain they are currently struggling with. Information warfare rages, and Israel appears to be struggling in certain social media spheres.
Sun Tzu might have argued this is now bleeding over into another fundamental factor: moral influence.
As international pressure for restraint mounts, will this become an issue? The agreeableness of a nation is often determined by its neighborhood. The United States or a Western European nation may tout their openness and inclusiveness. Can a country in a bad neighborhood like the Balkans pursue this type of policy? Probably only if backed by a strong external partner.
Israel is in a bad neighborhood. This conflict appears to be on track to move towards some level of de-escalation, and hopefully, this will be the case. If not, the video alludes to another piece of wisdom from the Master:
"...leave an outlet free...Do not press a desperate foe too hard."
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