### On the stability of authoritarian regimesIf you read about the current situation in Iran, you will quickly encounter wildly different assessments: > "The End of The Mullahs’ Regime in Iran Is Near" or > "Son of ousted shah says he’s ‘prepared to return to Iran’ at first opportunity" or > "Here’s Why the Iranian Regime Seems Invincible" These are just a few of todays headlines on the same topic. *The only thing this conveys with any certainty is that we don’t know shit.* There is no KPI showing when a regime is about to fall. If there were, the CIA would be perfect in predicting revolutions. But usually they are taken by surprise like everyone else. This thread is an attempt to explain why... 1/6