Wow, Putin and the military under Kennedy had a lot in common:
Operation Northwoods was a proposed false flag operation developed in 1962 by the U.S. Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the Kennedy administration. The plan aimed to create a pretext for military intervention in Cuba by staging and committing acts of terrorism on American soil and against American interests, then blaming them on the Cuban government led by Fidel Castro.
Key elements of the proposal included:
- Staging attacks on U.S. military installations, such as Guantanamo Bay, to simulate Cuban aggression.
- Sinking boats carrying Cuban refugees or blowing up a U.S. ship to provoke public outrage.
- Orchestrating fake hijackings or shoot-downs of civilian or military aircraft, including remotely controlled planes repainted as U.S. Air Force planes.
- Conducting a terror campaign in U.S. cities, such as Miami and Washington, D.C., with bombings or other violent acts attributed to Cuba.
- Framing Cuba for sabotaging U.S. space missions, like the 1962 Mercury flight with John Glenn.
The plan was drafted under the leadership of General Lyman Lemnitzer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as part of the broader Operation Mongoose, a CIA-led program to destabilize Castro’s regime following the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. It was presented to Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara on March 13, 1962, but President John F. Kennedy rejected it during a meeting on March 16, 1962, expressing strong opposition to such deceptive tactics. Kennedy later removed Lemnitzer from his position as Chairman, though Lemnitzer became Supreme Allied Commander of NATO in 1963.
The operation was never implemented, and its details remained classified until 1997, when documents were declassified by the John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Review Board. The full scope became widely known in 2001 with the publication of James Bamford’s book *Body of Secrets*. The revelation of Operation Northwoods has fueled discussions about government ethics and transparency, with some modern conspiracy theorists citing it as evidence of U.S. willingness to stage false flag attacks, though no evidence supports claims of such plans being executed.
Sources:,,,,
From Grok re KDLY fair price pre-merger with Nakamoto ($2.50 tops):
Determining a fair price for KindlyMD, Inc. (KDLY) shares prior to its merger with Nakamoto Holdings Inc., announced on May 12, 2025, requires evaluating available financial data, market performance, and the merger’s impact. However, the limited information in the sources, combined with the speculative nature of the merger and significant post-announcement price volatility, makes precise valuation challenging. Below, I’ll analyze the available data to estimate a fair price for KDLY shares pre-merger, focusing on fundamental metrics, market context, and the merger’s implications. All calculations and assumptions are based on the provided web sources and posts on X, with critical examination of their reliability.
Key Contextual Information
KindlyMD Overview: KindlyMD is a healthcare data company focused on holistic pain management, integrating prescription medicine and behavioral health to reduce opioid use. It had approximately 6 million shares outstanding and a market capitalization of $23.5 million at a share price of $3.90 as of May 9, 2025.
Merger Details: Announced May 12, 2025, KindlyMD is merging with Nakamoto Holdings Inc., a Bitcoin-native holding company, to form a Bitcoin treasury-focused entity. The merger includes:
$510 million PIPE financing at $1.12 per share (common stock and pre-funded warrants).
$200 million in senior secured convertible notes (conversion terms unclear).
Nakamoto shareholders receive 22.3 million shares of KindlyMD at $1.12 per share.
Stock Performance:
On May 9, 2025, KDLY closed at $3.90, with a 52-week range of $0.65 to $5.25.
Pre-market trading on May 12, 2025, saw KDLY surge to ~$20–$25.90 after the merger announcement, a 438.5%+ increase, reflecting speculative enthusiasm for the Bitcoin strategy.
Historical volatility was high, with a 16.25% daily fluctuation and a beta of 1.89, indicating significant risk.
Financial Metrics:
Q3 2024 revenue: $647,867, down 25.5% year-over-year due to a shift to insurance billing.
Q3 2024 net income: -$1.04 million, with an EBITDA of -$3.90 million and a negative gross profit margin of -59.5%.
Cash and short-term investments: $2.51 million, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44 and a current ratio of 2.3, suggesting moderate liquidity.
Market Sentiment:
Pre-merger, KDLY was considered a hold due to mixed signals (positive moving averages but overvalued per some metrics).
InvestingPro noted KDLY trading above its fair value pre-merger, with a 214% year-to-date return but operational challenges (negative margins, cash depletion).
Post-announcement X posts reflect speculative fervor, with some estimating KDLY’s post-merger stake at 0.8%–4.9% of the combined entity, though these are rough and unverified.
Valuation Approaches
To estimate a fair pre-merger price for KDLY shares (before the May 12 announcement), I’ll use fundamental and market-based approaches, excluding the post-announcement spike as it reflects merger-driven speculation rather than KindlyMD’s standalone value.
1. Fundamental Valuation: Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio
Book Value: KDLY’s book value is implied by its market cap and P/B ratio. At a share price of $3.90 and 6 million shares, the market cap is $23.5 million. With a P/B ratio of 7.18x (compared to the industry average of 3.5x), the book value is approximately $23.5M ÷ 7.18 ≈ $3.27 million, or $3.27M ÷ 6M shares ≈ $0.54 per share.
Industry-Adjusted P/B: Applying the industry average P/B of 3.5x to KDLY’s book value suggests a fair price of $0.54 × 3.5 ≈ $1.89 per share. This accounts for KDLY’s unprofitability and aligns with its healthcare data sector peers.
Limitations: KDLY’s negative margins (-59.5%) and unprofitability make P/B less reliable, as book value may not reflect operational potential. The high P/B suggests market optimism pre-merger, possibly due to its insurance contracts (e.g., Cigna, United Healthcare).
2. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio
Revenue: Q3 2024 revenue was $647,867, suggesting annualized revenue of ~$2.59 million (assuming consistent quarters).
Market Cap: At $3.90 per share, the market cap was $23.5 million, giving a P/S ratio of $23.5M ÷ $2.59M ≈ 9.07x.
Industry Comparison: The average P/S ratio for health information services is ~3–4x (based on typical SaaS and healthcare data firms). Applying a conservative 3.5x P/S to KDLY’s revenue yields a market cap of $2.59M × 3.5 ≈ $9.07 million, or $9.07M ÷ 6M shares ≈ $1.51 per share.
Adjustments: KDLY’s declining revenue (-25.5%) and negative margins justify a lower P/S multiple, but its insurance coverage (>90% in Utah) and growth potential may support a slight premium.
3. Market-Based Valuation: Pre-Merger Trading Range
Recent Price: KDLY closed at $3.90 on May 9, 2025, with a 115.47% gain over two weeks, reflecting pre-merger momentum (possibly due to merger leaks, as an X post noted a 70% weekly gain).
52-Week Range: $0.65–$5.25, with $3.90 near the high end, suggesting optimism but potential overvaluation.
Analyst Forecasts: CoinCodex predicted a $2.11 price by June 2, 2025, based on technical indicators, implying a -2.85% drop from $3.90, suggesting overvaluation at $3.90.
Fair Price Estimate: Given the $2.11 forecast and trading range, a fair price likely lies between the recent low-end support (~$2.00) and the closing price ($3.90), adjusted for overvaluation concerns. A range of $2.00–$2.50 aligns with technical sentiment and avoids speculative highs.
4. Merger Context: PIPE Pricing Benchmark
PIPE Price: The merger’s PIPE financing was priced at $1.12 per share, significantly below the $3.90 closing price, suggesting institutional investors valued KDLY conservatively pre-merger.
Implication: The $1.12 price may reflect Nakamoto’s valuation of KDLY’s contribution or a discount to secure the PIPE. While not a direct fair value, it indicates a lower bound for KDLY’s standalone worth, supporting a fair price closer to $1.12–$2.00 before speculative surges.
Critical Analysis
Overvaluation Signals: InvestingPro noted KDLY trading 782% above its fair value pre-merger, with a negative gross margin (-59.5%) and cash depletion risks. The P/B (7.18x vs. 3.5x industry) and P/S (9.07x vs. 3–4x) ratios suggest KDLY was priced optimistically, possibly due to its insurance contracts or merger rumors.
Speculative Surge: The pre-market jump to $20–$25.90 on May 12 reflects Bitcoin-related hype, not KDLY’s fundamentals. X posts suggest insider knowledge or leaks (70% weekly gain), inflating the price before the announcement.
Operational Weakness: KDLY’s declining revenue, negative EBITDA (-$3.90M), and unprofitability weaken its standalone value, justifying a lower fair price absent the merger.
Merger Impact: The merger dilutes KDLY shareholders to ~0.8%–1.24% of the combined entity, but the $710 million capital raise and Bitcoin strategy drove the price surge, not KDLY’s intrinsic value.
Fair Price Estimate
Combining these approaches, a fair pre-merger price for KDLY shares as of May 9, 2025, likely falls in the range of $1.50–$2.50:
P/B Approach: ~$1.89, based on industry-adjusted book value.
P/S Approach: ~$1.51, reflecting revenue and sector norms.
Market-Based: ~$2.00–$2.50, aligning with technical forecasts ($2.11) and trading support levels, discounting speculative highs.
PIPE Benchmark: ~$1.12, as a conservative lower bound.
The $2.00 midpoint balances KDLY’s operational challenges (negative margins, unprofitability) with its growth potential (insurance coverage, healthcare data) and market sentiment pre-merger. The $3.90 closing price appears inflated, likely due to merger leaks or sector optimism, as supported by InvestingPro’s overvaluation warning and the PIPE’s $1.12 pricing.
Caveats
Limited Data: Exact book value, revenue projections, and PIPE warrant terms are incomplete, limiting precision. SEC filings (e.g., 8-K) could clarify.
Speculative Noise: The post-announcement surge distorts market-based valuation, and X posts (e.g., 4.9% stake claim) are unverified and likely overestimate KDLY’s share.
Bitcoin Risk: The merger’s Bitcoin focus introduces volatility, irrelevant to pre-merger valuation but inflating perceptions.
Source Reliability: Web sources are recent but lack detailed financials, and X posts are speculative, requiring cautious use.
Conclusion
A fair price for KDLY shares pre-merger, as of May 9, 2025, is approximately $1.50–$2.50, with $2.00 as a reasonable estimate. This reflects KDLY’s fundamental value (P/B, P/S), market trends (technical forecasts, trading range), and the PIPE’s conservative pricing, while discounting the speculative $3.90 close and post-merger surge. KDLY’s unprofitability and high volatility suggest caution, but its insurance contracts and healthcare data potential justify a modest premium over book value.
For a more precise valuation, review KindlyMD’s 8-K filing or information statement on www.sec.gov for detailed merger terms and financials. If you’d like, I can search for additional SEC documents or analyze specific financial metrics further. Would you like me to do so?
Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don’t share information that can identify you.