Using school shootings only from 2014 forward, which is the reasonable year when people started feeling comfortable coming out "trans", here are the numbers on the increased likelihood of a trans person committing a school shooting.
Calculation:
Proportion of trans shooters: 4/15 β 0.2667 or 26.67%
Proportion of trans in population: 0.1% = 0.001
Relative likelihood (overrepresentation factor): 26.67% / 0.1% = 266.7 times more likely
Percentage increase in likelihood: (266.7 - 1) Γ 100% = 26,570%
Final Answer:
With 4 out of 15 shooters being transgender, the percentage increase in likelihood that a transgender person will commit a school shooting, compared to the general population (0.1% transgender), is approximately 26,570%.
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