My short-term macro Bitcoin thesis:
The Fed ends QT on December 1, 2025.
Repo stress (SOFR at ~4.2% (recent highs), SRF at ~$50B record, reserves at 5-year lows) is poised to force balance sheet expansion in Q1 2026.
Liquidity is incoming. This is bullish for Bitcoin:
Global liquidity is projected to rise from 60 to 70/100 by mid-2026 (CrossBorder Index).
The rollover of $10T US debt + synchronized central bank easing = the biggest structural liquidity wave we've seen since 2020.
Bitcoin is the purest liquidity play.
US M2 $22.2T in September, up ~4.5% YoY. Forecast: $23T+ by YE 2026. Money supply is now expanding faster than inflation.
Bitcoin is priced in shrinking fiat units.
FY2026 Spending: $7T, up 7.7%
Interest Payments: $1T
Deficits: 6.3% GDP
Monetary policy subordinated to financing the treasury = fiscal dominance. Bitcoin is the optimal hedge.
Repo demand is estimated to be >$1T (cash-futures basis trade). QT’s $95B/month relief is insufficient.
NY Fed President Williams: “May soon need to expand balance sheet for liquidity needs."
2019 playbook: repo crisis → $500B QE → Bitcoin +300%. Today: structurally larger stress, RRP near zero, larger deficit.
Same trigger, bigger outcome.
QT is dead. QE is back. M2 is rising. Deficits are structural. Global liquidity will surge.
Bitcoin is pristine collateral in a debasement supercycle—the optimal macro setup for the purest expression of global liquidity and monetary truth.



