Nothing validates Dunning and Kruger quite like the X "For You" algorithm.





High rates widen our structural fiscal deficit.
Low rates spur speculative attacks on fiat (borrowing $ to buy hard assets such as Bitcoin).
Under current policy and politics, a long-term fiscal spiral is mathematically and politically inevitable by the early 2030s.
1. The Math is Inescapable
Debt Dynamics:
d_(t+1) = d_t * (1 + r - g) + pd
- d_t = Debt-to-GDP ratio in year t
- r = real rate
- g = real growth
- pd = primary deficit
d_0 (2025 debt/GDP) = 100% locked-in
r (real rate) = 2% → 2.5% ( ⬆️ debt → ⬆️ yields)
g (real growth) = 1.7–1.9% locked-in (aging/productivity)
pd (primary deficit) = 2.5–3% GDP locked-in (entitlements/interest)
r - g = +0.6 % to +0.8%
pd > 0
IF real rate > real growth and primary deficit > 0, THEN debt grows exponentially.
2. Escape Routes = Political Fantasies
- Primary surplus: Cut $1.5T (10% of budget)? → 0% chance
- Raise taxes +50%? → 0% chance
- Growth >4%? → <5% chance
- Inflation >10%? → possible, but destructive
CBO: “No plausible policy combination stabilizes debt.”
3. The Spiral Timeline
2025 → 100% debt/GDP
2030 → 118% (interest > Medicare)
2032 → 130% (tipping point)
2035 → 150% (exponential phase)
2040 → 190% (crisis)
By 2032, interest > all discretionary spending (Fed caps rates or monetizes).
4. Market Delusion = Time Bomb
- 10-yr Yield: 4.08% (still normal)
- Foreign Buyers: Down from 50% → <30% of Treasuries
- TIC Data: China, Japan net sellers in 2025
confidence cracks → yields spike → spiral accelerates
5. Only Two Options Remain:
A. Inflationary Spiral: Fed monetizes → 10–20% inflation. Savers wiped out.
B. Default/Restructure: 7–10% yields → dollar credibility collapse.
Both entail wealth transfers from fiat holders to hard asset owners.
In either case, the outcome is the same:
Monetary repression.
Debasement.
Loss of purchasing power.
The system simply cannot deleverage mathematically or politically. No policy fix is remotely plausible.
If banks are chiefly leveraged bond funds and a long-term fiscal spiral seems inevitable, then where do we securely store our savings?
Exit fiat-denominated, duration-exposed assets.
Enter the capped-supply, seizure-resistant store of value.
The Fiscal Singularity is Near.
Bitcoin is the exit.
Claude:
Grok:
Perplexity:
Venice:

