The Fiscal Singularity: Why the US Debt Spiral is Inevitable #nothingstopsthistrain High rates widen our structural fiscal deficit. Low rates spur speculative attacks on fiat (borrowing $ to buy hard assets such as Bitcoin). Under current policy and politics, a long-term fiscal spiral is mathematically and politically inevitable by the early 2030s. 1. The Math is Inescapable Debt Dynamics: d_(t+1) = d_t * (1 + r - g) + pd - d_t = Debt-to-GDP ratio in year t - r = real rate - g = real growth - pd = primary deficit d_0 (2025 debt/GDP) = 100% locked-in r (real rate) = 2% → 2.5% ( ⬆️ debt → ⬆️ yields) g (real growth) = 1.7–1.9% locked-in (aging/productivity) pd (primary deficit) = 2.5–3% GDP locked-in (entitlements/interest) r - g = +0.6 % to +0.8% pd > 0 IF real rate > real growth and primary deficit > 0, THEN debt grows exponentially. 2. Escape Routes = Political Fantasies - Primary surplus: Cut $1.5T (10% of budget)? → 0% chance - Raise taxes +50%? → 0% chance - Growth >4%? → <5% chance - Inflation >10%? → possible, but destructive CBO: “No plausible policy combination stabilizes debt.” 3. The Spiral Timeline 2025 → 100% debt/GDP 2030 → 118% (interest > Medicare) 2032 → 130% (tipping point) 2035 → 150% (exponential phase) 2040 → 190% (crisis) By 2032, interest > all discretionary spending (Fed caps rates or monetizes). 4. Market Delusion = Time Bomb - 10-yr Yield: 4.08% (still normal) - Foreign Buyers: Down from 50% → <30% of Treasuries - TIC Data: China, Japan net sellers in 2025 confidence cracks → yields spike → spiral accelerates 5. Only Two Options Remain: A. Inflationary Spiral: Fed monetizes → 10–20% inflation. Savers wiped out. B. Default/Restructure: 7–10% yields → dollar credibility collapse. Both entail wealth transfers from fiat holders to hard asset owners. In either case, the outcome is the same: Monetary repression. Debasement. Loss of purchasing power. The system simply cannot deleverage mathematically or politically. No policy fix is remotely plausible. If banks are chiefly leveraged bond funds and a long-term fiscal spiral seems inevitable, then where do we securely store our savings? Exit fiat-denominated, duration-exposed assets. Enter the capped-supply, seizure-resistant store of value. The Fiscal Singularity is Near. Bitcoin is the exit.

In a single sentence, please answer this question: As a human whose highest aims are love, truth, wisdom, meaning, virtue, harmony, and freedom—and who desires to pursue these aims in a manner most aligned with historical, philosophical, and scientific realities—which worldview is optimal? ChatGPT: Claude: Grok: Perplexity: Venice:

Constituents deeply overestimate the correlation between eloquence and correctness. Grandiloquence correlates with sophistry and implies that the communicator is concerned with promoting their voice to a greater extent than their ideas. Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.

SNAP's economic multiplier only measures its short-term stimulus in downturns when funds go to people likely to spend them immediately. This boost doesn't mean SNAP is a perpetual wealth machine, nor does it erase the underlying costs or trade-offs in resource allocation. Taxing $1 reduces private resources that might have generated more than $1.50 in activity if left invested or spent privately, especially since only a portion of tax revenue is effectively converted into economically productive government spending. Over time, excessive taxation and inefficient government allocation retard economic growth and compound negative effects on quality of life, innovation, and wages. Benefit cliffs in SNAP infamously create a disincentive to increase income. Recent policy changes in SNAP benefit calculations (benefit increases without income eligibility limit adjustments) have exacerbated these cliffs. Such perverse incentives keep recipients dependent longer. This perpetual government backstop for massive corporations such as Walmart, who captures 25% of all SNAP spending, acts as an indirect form of corporate welfare as well. SNAP drives ~24% of all U.S. grocery sales despite comprising ~12–15% of households. They outspend average American workers by ~15–20% on groceries. Data: USDA ERS, BLS CE, Numerator (2025). A moral hazard subsidizing corporate margins through dependency loops is suboptimal policy at best. Always beware of economically illiterate politicians with proven track records of inefficient capital allocation touting benefits while ignoring costs. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

The US, a nation with unpredictable monetary policy, nearly $40 trillion in debt, and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 125%, is investment grade. A company with preferred shares 5x overcollateralized by pristine collateral and the hardest asset known to mankind is junk. We are so early.