Recession never took over the economic steering gear. We have been in inflationary expansion since May 2003 till today Oct 20, 2003. Will situation change? At least the monthly chart is slow to tell.

The potential impacts of the Israel-Hamas escalation on the US inflation, interest rate and stock prices: 1. Oil supply fears fan inflation risks. With M2 money supply already constrained by central banks, this extra inflation impulse would be more persistent. 2. To counter rising inflation, the Fed may have to accelerate interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. This would reduce liquidity further when it is already flat. 3. Stocks would likely price in higher recession odds over a 6-12 month horizon. The strong dollar adversely impacts US earnings from overseas. This could weigh on stocks as well.

The potential impacts of the Israel-Hamas escalation on the US inflation, interest rate and stock prices: 1. Oil supply fears fan inflation risks. With M2 money supply already constrained by central banks, this extra inflation impulse would be more persistent. 2. To counter rising inflation, the Fed may have to accelerate interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. This would reduce liquidity further when it is already flat. 3. Stocks would likely price in higher recession odds over a 6-12 month horizon. The strong dollar adversely impacts US earnings from overseas. This could weigh on stocks as well.

我們在不斷地進進出出小型的滾動衰退recessions. 前幾個星期感覺我們在走出一個小的衰退, 那麽明年一季度是否再次進入下一個的經濟低迷, 然後再很快復蘇起來. 期待Fed 統一全面降息似乎沒有必要, 微刺激需要刺激的經濟sectors,快速注入資金, 再快熟抽走資金, 這個似乎是Fed CBDC可以實現的.

我們在不斷地進進出出小型的滾動衰退recessions. 前幾個星期感覺我們在走出一個小的衰退, 那麽明年一季度是否再次進入下一個的經濟低迷, 然後再很快復蘇起來. 期待Fed 統一全面降息似乎沒有必要, 微刺激需要刺激的經濟sectors,快速注入資金, 再快熟抽走資金, 這個似乎是Fed CBDC可以實現的.

We're continuously moving in and out of minor rolling recessions. Past few weeks feel like we're coming out of a small one, so will we dip into another economic slowdown in Q1 next year, then quickly recover again? A sweeping Fed rate cut doesn't seem necessary, targeted stimuli for sectors needing it, quick capital injection and withdrawal, seems like something Fed CBDC could enable.

沙特阿拉伯原计划在2024年1月加入金砖国家组织,这表示它将与中国、印度、俄罗斯、巴西等国建立更紧密的贸易和货币关系。但与此同时,沙特阿拉伯也在与美国达成协议,正常化与以色列的关系,希望换取美国的武器交易和支持。沙特还承诺如果油价上涨太快,它会增加石油产量来帮助美国。这次袭击使沙特处在一个进退两难的位置。一方面,与伊朗敌对会影响它加入金砖国家组织的计划;另一方面,如果与伊朗关系靠近,会损害它与美国和以色列正常化关系的努力。这将对未来几周沙特与以色列和美国的关系产生重大影响。 金砖国家组织内部存在很多分歧。在复杂的大背景下,在多个不同文化圈之间达成贸易、货币和军事协定比歐美和以色列固有堅實的結盟相比是非常具有挑战性的。

American is taking down the BRICS one by one. The US took care of South Africa first, and South Africa shrank back without making a peep. Now it has sent Canada and the UK to deal with India, to see whether Modi will obey or not. Most recently, Israel is ready to enter Gaza. The ultimate target is Iran or Saudi Arabia? Or both?

似乎美帝國主義在一個個修理金磚國家BRICKS. 美國先治理南非，南非連個聲沒發就萎縮了。現在又派加拿大和英國出面修理印度，看摩迪服不服。最新是受命以色列武裝入侵加沙，最後目標不是伊朗，就是沙特

沙特阿拉伯原计划在2024年1月加入金砖国家组织,这表示它将与中国、印度、俄罗斯、巴西等国建立更紧密的贸易和货币关系。但与此同时,沙特阿拉伯也在与美国达成协议,正常化与以色列的关系,希望换取美国的武器交易和支持。沙特还承诺如果油价上涨太快,它会增加石油产量来帮助美国。这次袭击使沙特处在一个进退两难的位置。一方面,与伊朗敌对会影响它加入金砖国家组织的计划;另一方面,如果与伊朗关系靠近,会损害它与美国和以色列正常化关系的努力。这将对未来几周沙特与以色列和美国的关系产生重大影响。 金砖国家组织内部存在很多分歧。在复杂的大背景下,在多个不同文化圈之间达成贸易、货币和军事协定比歐美和以色列固有堅實的結盟相比是非常具有挑战性的。