I think we’re all subconsciously waiting for the moment where Bitcoin becomes an “easy hold”.
But the moment it becomes that, it will likely have plateaud in value (think percentage increases a year, not multiple x).
Quantum FUD and people disillusioned we didn’t pump harder into QT are bullish, will provide the final trampoline to $1m and beyond.
I work at one of the big financial firms. In fixed income, so managing bond portfolios. As fiat as it gets and somehow probably a dying profession in the long run, but it pays the (fiat) bills.
Obviously, I get around and chat to a wide variety of people in and around the firm, so I have a front-row seat to their evolving perspectives on Bitcoin, and dare I say “digital assets” and “tokenisation” and that sort of nonsense. Not the niche “crypto” VC/fund in-crowd, but boomer traditional finance.
Back in 2018-19, I remember chatting to the then head of multi-asset over beers and him laughing at me, calling Bitcoin an obvious scam. Five years later, the same guy re-emerges as the “head of digital assets”. He changed his tune on BTC. At the end of the day, we are all mercenaries.
Like him, I’ve seen failed equity portfolio managers fall down and IT people fall up into “crypto”. That’s sort of the make-up of this group today. Not imho the best and the brightest.
Today, I wouldn’t call Bitcoin something well-loved or understood in the financial industry. Intuitively, they see it more as a necessary box to tick, so they can jump straight over it to move to shitcoin ETFs and tokenisation. We went from “blockchain, not Bitcoin” for 8 years to half a year of “Bitcoin, I guess” to 2 years of “shitcoin tokenisation, baby”.
The CEO is now angry that our Bitcoin ETF fees are low, but BlackRock completely ate our lunch, and their ETF is X times bigger. Etc.
The problem is, Bitcoin will never change and give these people the fiat excitement and value extraction they so desperately seek. DATs or MSTR building a Bitcoin yield curve aren’t a thing in our world; that’s niche bitcoiner stuff. Tokenisation is just a tech innovation that can probably cut fees down a bit, but is largely meaningless. Shitcoin ETFs aren’t gaining any traction.
So there’s a slow realisation setting in that this thing isn’t going anywhere, these departments over-hired, and besides Bitcoin, which is THE thing, there’s really nothing there. I’m seeing depressed faces and people are losing hope.
So all in all, the industry still doesn’t get Bitcoin at all and the current setup won’t last.
As a fixed income/currency investor, what I think really needs to happen to get to the next stage is for people to understand that BTC is just another ticker for a currency. EUR, USD, JPY, KRW, BTC. Could be just another line item in your portfolio. A currency like all the others, one not issued by a government that is infinitely more scarce.
And for that, you need exactly zero “digital assets” people in your firm. They will all come and go as we head into the next phase of understanding.