This week's intel update is out 👍
//The Wire//2300Z June 20, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC AVIATION AND NAVAL FORCES CONTINUE STAGING IN MIDDLE EAST.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Targeting efforts by Iranian forces continue with multiple missile strikes being reported in Haifa overnight, targeting the Negev Advanced Technologies Park. Israeli targeting continues in similar fashion in Tehran. The United Kingdom has evacuated their Embassy in Tehran, and the United States continues to maneuver substantial resources into the Middle East. Maersk has announced that they are suspending all operations in the port city of Haifa while the war remains kinetic. AC: This afternoon a 5.4M earthquake was detected originating in the vicinity of Tehran. Considering that tensions are extremely high throughout the region, this has led many to theorize that some sort of weapons test was carried out (as nuclear tests are normally detected by seismic sensors). However, at the moment, nothing points to this outcome. The USGS plots the earthquake at an estimated depth of 10km, which is far deeper than a nuclear test would be. Additionally, the seismic signature of a man-made explosive device can easily be discerned from natural phenomenon, so if it was a man-made blast every seismologist in the world will be able to verify it. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the war continues in the Middle East, a bit of background knowledge may be helpful in understanding the grand strategy of the military tactics at hand. Both Israel and Iran are unique nations in that geography separates them, yet neither have any real expeditionary capability. In short, if a nation is at war with another...but doesn't share a land border or have a military with an amphibious capability... the most that nation can do is more or less to lob missiles at their adversary. So far, both nations have relied upon this long-distance targeting means as their primary way of waging war: Iran launches missiles, and the Israelis drop bombs. However, Israeli military doctrine is heavily reliant upon deception and subterfuge in order to project influence even within the nations they are at war with. Right now, it is becoming more clear that Israeli Special Forces are able to operate on the ground within Iran, in many cases with impunity. Israel was able to create a "drone base" in the desert from which their initial attacks were launched within Iran itself (echoing Ukraine's sneak attack in Russia). Similarly, Iranian forces have discovered several instances of equipment emplaced on the ground very close to sensitive sites; overnight the Iranians discovered a remotely-controlled Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) launcher emplaced outside Tehran, in addition to a small truck that was laden with drones (again, exactly as was used by Ukraine recently). Several propaganda videos of strikes in Iran have raised questions as to exactly how the footage was taken. For example, Israeli forces released the footage of the strikes on the Arak Heavy Water facility...footage which appears to have been filmed from an elevated position on the ground...not from a drone as one might expect. This will be important to consider as American involvement appears be looming. In less than two months, large-scale sneak-attacks via drones and asymmetric warfare tactics have become normalized in two major conflicts. This is not a threat that is years away; this threat has gone from the drawing board to operationally proven (twice) in just a few weeks. Analyst: S2A1 Research:
S2 Underground GhostNotes
Introduction and Welcome - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
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//The Wire//0300Z June 13, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES. IRAN VOWS RETALIATION//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: A few moments ago Israeli forces conducted large-scale missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities scattered around the nation. The Uranium enrichment and storage facility at Natanz is currently on fire, and the Heavy Water manufacturing center at Arak has also been struck. Several decapitation strikes were reported among key leaders in Tehran, with the leadership of the Iranian nuclear program being the chief target for the first wave of targeting efforts. AC: Regarding other sites, the fog of war prevents an accurate assessment of which locations have been struck, so the battle damage assessments will have to wait a few hours while the dust settles. Iranian media is currently reporting that Iran is expected to officially declare war soon, though this may be more of a reflection of battlefield excitement rather than official government policy. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Immediately after the first strikes were reported, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States was not involved in these strikes. Texas: A ground stop has been issued for the George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston. AC: At the moment it's not clear as to what the ground stop is in reference to, other than a general security incident. More details will have to follow later on. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Right now, the immediate concerns center around a near-mid-far threat assessment model, both in terms of physical distance and time: Local threats take precedent over far-away threats, and fast-paced, time sensitive problems must be handled before long term problems that can wait. At the moment, 'near' threat concerns involve potential malign actors conducting attacks in the United States, 'mid-range' concerns pertain to logistics, shipping, and the US personnel that may be within range of any potential Iranian counterattack. Long-term concerns will develop later on as the world awaits Iran's response. Iran does not have the capability to directly strike the American homeland, but they can certainly strike many critical American sites around the Middle East. Considering that Iran had at least four days of very obvious advanced notice of these attacks, that will be a factor to consider as events develop. Locally to the homefronts of most Western nations, the chief concern is that of Iranian agents, saboteurs, and sympathizers that may be located in positions to cause problems. There are no specific threats that have come to light regarding potential terrorism within the homeland as retaliation, however those indicators would probably not be discernible before any attack anyway. Regardless of the politics behind this action, both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protests are now extremely high-risk events to attend or be located near. Currently the social situation in the United States is primed for any kinetic activity which may strike the match and light the fuse of the tensions that have been building for some time. The context of the thousands of kinetic protests being undertaken right now in nearly every single US State must also be considered; there is enough overlap between the demonstrators currently causing problems, and those who seek to carry out more substantial attacks. Analyst: S2A1 Research:
S2 Underground GhostNotes
Introduction and Welcome - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
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//The Wire//2200Z June 12, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: COMMERCIAL AIRLINER CRASHES IN INDIA, 260 FATALITIES CONFIRMED SO FAR. TENSIONS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. RIOTS CONTINUE IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND USA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- India: This morning Air India Flight 171 crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad. The aircraft impacted the student housing at B.J. Medical College, a teaching hospital and large medical facility. Local authorities have claimed that there was only one survivor among the 242 souls on board. There is no confirmation on casualties sustained on the ground, however locals have provided the figure of 260 casualties all total (both those in the aircraft and on the ground). Aircraft debris is spread over a wide area throughout a densely-populated region, so the casualty count is expected to rise as recovery efforts continue. Northern Ireland: Protests and riots alike continued throughout the region overnight, with locals continuing arson attacks on migrant centers. Yesterday afternoon, locals discovered that the family members of the migrants who assaulted a child (the incident that started all of this) were temporarily evacuated to a Leisure Center in Larne, which was promptly burned down by locals. Riots continued in Ballymena, and vandalism efforts have disrupted local train services as obstacles and fires were set on train tracks in a few locations around the area. Middle East: Indications and warnings continue to mount regarding a potential war with Iran. The US State Department continues to issue region-wide warnings, though no specifics have been provided regarding the potential threats. AC: Considering all possibilities, the recent threat warnings issued by the White House could also be a ruse, specifically an ambiguity-decreasing information operation. In other words, it could be a trick to pressure the Iranians into making a deal with regards to their nuclear aspirations. Either way, it is a dangerous game, and increased vigilance is recommended in any case due to the uncertainty of how events might transpire over the next few days. -HomeFront- Texas: Governor Greg Abbott has ordered the deployment of approximately 5,000 National Guard soldiers in preparation for the mass demonstration events planned for this weekend. These forces will augment the thousands of local and state police which have been tasked with keeping order during the thousands of protests that will take place around the nation on Saturday. California: This afternoon U.S. Senator Alex Padilla was arrested after attempting to disrupt a press conference at which DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was speaking. Senator Padilla resisted being removed from the room after causing the disruption, and was subsequently arrested by force in the hallway outside the event. The Senator was released shortly after the incident, and as of yet has not been charged. USA: This afternoon a large scale communications outage was reported throughout the nation. Cloudflare, AWS, and Google Cloud all reported simultaneous issues with their platforms and services. AC: No cause of the outages has been reported, however this is a major incident considering the timing of multiple independent systems going offline at the same time. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: When it comes to the chaos and kinetic activities in Northern Ireland, there are two main lines of effort by involved parties: There are the ethnically Irish protesters-turned-rioters, who have engaged in arson attacks in migrant communities in response to immigration issues. Separate from these incidents, looting has been observed taking place, which is largely being carried out by migrant communities themselves. This is complicating efforts to host legitimately peaceful demonstrations, as the situation in some areas is simply too chaotic to determine exactly what's going on. The situation in Northern Ireland has never been simple to describe, and it's been made worse by the establishment of migrant centers in local Irish communities. In India, right now it's too soon to determine exactly what caused the crash of Flight 171. However local media claims that a mayday call was issued by the pilots immediately after takeoff, though in the short time between the call and the crash, it's not clear what might have happened. Video footage from shortly before the crash also indicates that the aircraft's flaps were fully retracted, which is very abnormal for any aircraft on takeoff, let along a very heavy long-haul flight fully laden with passengers and fuel. Analyst: S2A1 Research:
S2 Underground GhostNotes
Introduction and Welcome - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
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