let's do this shit

I’ve been digging myself out of the early hole the last few weeks, though I’m still just barely under .500 overall — 14-16 for the Normal entries and 15-14-1 for the Ugly. This week all my lines were close to the actual ones, so these picks are solely based on feel. Actually, it’s always that way — guessing the lines is just a pulse-taking exercise, not a diagnostic tool. Normal 1 and 2 The Dolphins are a fun team, but my vibe on them is use against weak teams and fade against strong ones. The Eagles, coming off a loss, are the latter. The Lions are arguably better than the Ravens, but this is just a feeling after they’ve played some weaker opponents. The Packers are bad, but the Broncos are worse. The Falcons are good except at quarterback. I think they go back to running the ball more and have success uglying it up. The Patriots are terrible but getting eight at home is a ton, and the Bills were awfully shaky last week. Ugly The Colts getting 3.5 at home presumes Deshaun Watson plays, and that’s not a lock. Morever, even if he does, he might not be 100 percent. The Giants showed up last week, and the Team is a sell high after beating the Falcons. The Steelers are coming off a bye and play solid defense. The Rams aren’t bad, but they’re a slight sell high after last week. I doubled up on the Falcons and Patriots because I have to make 10 picks and didn’t have much of a feel for the remaining games. And both certainly qualify as ugly.

This is going to sound bad, but bad is not against the terms of service here, only bullshit. Once again I watched only the five-minute highlights because as I type this at 6:44 am Portugal time, the good people at the NFL have not edited the game into the 40-minute version. This is the window I have to watch and write about it before starting my day, and so the five-minute version it is. I’m happy to see the Jaguars covered — always nice to start off Friday morning with a W in the picking pool, and while I was aghast to see Travis Etienne score two TDs in the first quarter, he actually did not have a huge game otherwise. Alvin Kamara’s volume is unbelievable right now — 17 carries and 14 targets! That’s RB1 overall type usage, though his efficiency is nowhere near what it once was. Chris Olave got 57 yards on 15 targets — that’s not good. As I said I didn’t watch down in and down on, but I’m getting the sense Derek Carr did not play a good game, getting 301 yards on 55 attempts. The reason I root so hard against Etienne is I traded him away in the RotoWire dynasty league this summer because I was desperate for a TE (there were none available, and no one would trade with me.) I moved him for Taysom Hill and Amari Cooper, and while that trade has been bad, it’s nice to see Hill get a rushing TD and four catches for 50 yards. The Saints loss is also good for the Falcons-Saints preseason bet I made while drunk at the Steak League dinner. The NFC South is wide open. Trevor Lawrence was questionable for the game with a knee injury, but he rushed for 59 yards, so it seems like he’s okay. He also had only 204 passing yards and one TD, much of which came on a 44-yard short catch and long run by Christian Kirk to win the game. (I saw that play.) Remember when people were drafting Tank Bigsby! And also pushing up Calvin Ridley into the late second round! I was bragging about getting Ridley in the fourth early in draft season too and was upset he didn’t fall to 3.2 in my Primetime. (I took the great Devonta Smith instead.) I hope Ridley took the under on his season totals! (Too soon, I know.) The only really annoying thing about this game is someone has Foyesade Oluokun in the Steak League, and he got 14 tackles, a pick and a TD — that’s 25 points from an IDP, which is just bullshit, unless it happens for one of my guys.

whenever my team (the Yankees) isn't in the playoffs, I just root for the worst World Series matchup for the league from a marketing perspective. Diamondbacks-Rangers would be ideal.