Just got the results of a blood test, A1C was 5.1, down from 5.5, and this after eating a TON of fruit, ice cream and dried fruit the last few months. I exercise a lot and fast/intermittent fast, but lowest its been in 10 years, and been eating more unrefined sugar than ever. Very strange (and good).
Put this behind the paywall on my substack, but figured I'd post for free on nostr:
Super Bowl 60
I haven’t felt as strongly about a Super Bowl pick since 2014 when the record-setting Peyton Manning Broncos took on the Legion of Boom/peak Russell Wilson Seahawks. Here’s a video of that prediction from 12 years ago.
Most of you know my pick already, but I’m putting a paywall on this as a differentiator for my paying subscribers. Believe it or not, they really exist, and every now and then I need to provide some value that’s not freely available to everyone.
Super Bowl LX
Patriots +4.5 vs Seahawks (45.5)
Before I looked at the line, I expected it to be about seven. The Seahawks had just beaten a Rams team that’s tough on both sides of the ball and blown out a 49ers team that was competitive all year. The Patriots benefited from the easiest regular season schedule in the league, drew the Chargers who were missing their entire offensive line, the Texans in a weather game where CJ Stoud had five turnovers and the Broncos in another weather game without their starting quarterback. They happen to represent the AFC, but even today, the Bills would be favored against them on a neutral field as would the Broncos with a healthy Bo Nix.
The other trend I’ve documented at length is that elite defenses tend to overperform expectations in the Super Bowl. One can form theories as to why this is, but the examples are overwhelming from the underdog Seahawks crushing Manning’s Broncos to the 2016 Broncos (underdogs) stifling Cam Newton’s 15-1 Panthers to the 2000 Ravens to the 2002 Bucs (underdogs) to the 2020 Bucs who took apart Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Even the Giants two improbable wins over Tom Brady were largely due to a defense (though not highly ranked on the year) that was loaded with edge rushers and playing out of its mind in the playoffs. For whatever reason, if there’s a Super Bowl, and one team has an elite defense, that team tends to win and cover.
But is the Seahawks defense elite? Let’s look at the numbers. Sorted by yards per play, the Seahawks (4.6) were second only to the Broncos (4.5). And they did this despite playing the Rams (6.2 YPP, 1st) twice. The Patriots defense was middle of the pack (5.2 YPP) despite getting the Jets (4.4 YPP, 29th) twice and other bottom-10 offenses like the Browns (32nd), Raiders (31st), Saints (27th), Panthers (26th) and Bucs (24th). And the Texans, who they saw in the playoffs, were 23rd, the Chargers 21st and the Broncos 16th, and that was with Nix, not Jarrett Stidham. Essentially, the Patriots defense is average at best.
On offense, the Patriots were second at 6.2 YPP, but the Seahawks were fourth at 5.9 YPP, and given the disparate competition, I’ll call that a wash. But as I mentioned, for whatever reason in the Super Bowl, even one of the all-time offenses, Peyton Manning’s 55-TD pass Broncos, got smoked by an elite defense. Defense really does seem disproportionately to win championships.
Seahawks 34 - Patriots 19
Listened to about half of the
@jack mallers pod, and something clicked for me. The Yen blows up, people are worried the Japanese who own $5T in US assets might be forced sellers, so they flee into a neutral reserve asset (gold). If Japan dumps UST and stocks, gold is protection. So gold (and silver) moons, but that trade gets crowded. If only there were another neutral reserve asset available at a discount.
It's dumb to lie about anything, but I can at least understand someone lying when they think they'll get away with it. But people lie even when they have to know they'll get caught! It's hard for me to understand that mentality, so much so that I almost believe them except that it's happened so many times I've just gotten more skeptical of everyone.