Europe has spent the past four years “freeing itself” from its “dependence” on cheap reliable Russian gas, only to replace that with a much more dangerous and real dependence on expensive, volatile US gas — one that Trump is now using to blackmail Europe.
Over the past four years, Europe’s shift from Russian to American has already translated into higher energy prices that have crippled industrial competitiveness and pushed major economies, above all Germany, towards deindustrialisation. But now, just as Brussels celebrates the final approval of a complete ban on Russian gas by the end of the year, things are about to get much worse.
This week, US gas prices surged around 70%, reaching their highest level in three years. Those price spikes will feed directly into higher gas and electricity costs in Europe — during one of the coldest winters in years, and at a time when millions of Europeans are already unable to afford adequate heating.
The episode encapsulates the self-destructive character of EU energy policy over the past four years. Yet the problem is not merely that cheap and reliable Russian gas has been replaced with costlier and more volatile American LNG. More troubling still is that the United States is far more likely to use its energy exports as an instrument of political pressure than Russia ever was, leaving the EU more dependent on its imperial master than ever.
For all the talk of Russia’s “weaponisation” of gas supplies, history tells a different story. For decades, first the Soviet Union and later Russia continued supplying energy to Germany and the rest of Europe through multiple geopolitical crises, including during the height of the Cold War. More recently, even after the delivery of German weapons to Ukraine, and then the attack on Nord Stream, Moscow repeatedly stated that it was up to Berlin whether to resume gas supplies or not.
The United States, by contrast, has a long and well-documented history of weaponising energy — using it as leverage to extract economic and geopolitical concessions. And under Donald Trump, this has become explicit policy. The US National Security Strategy, published in November 2025, designates “American energy dominance” across oil, gas, coal and nuclear power as a top strategic priority, explicitly framing the expansion of American energy exports as a means to “project power”. This is not mere rhetoric.
Even though Europe’s dependence on US energy was already a fait accompli by the time Trump returned to office, since then Trump has actively sought to further deepen and entrench that dependence. But even more worryingly, Washington has increasingly politicised these energy flows, with US officials openly linking continued LNG supplies to regulatory and political concessions — or even more disturbingly weaponising US energy exports to extract concessions not only over Greenland but across a wide range of issues.
Europe now effectively finds itself heavily dependent for its gas on a country whose President openly threatens the territorial integrity of a European state. Whatever risks were associated with dependence on Russian gas, they pale in comparison.
It is crucial to understand, however, that Trump’s weaponisation of European energy supplies is about far more than bluster or the ruthless pursuit of short-term gains. As the US National Security Strategy makes clear, these moves are part of a broader, long-term strategy aimed at securing American energy dominance for decades to come. This is about much more than just increasing revenues for American energy companies. It’s part and parcel of Trump’s desperate ditch to preserve US hegemony at all costs in a rapidly changing global order.
If we look at many US actions in recent years — from severing Europe’s access to Russian gas, to the seizure of Venezuelan oil assets, to escalating pressure on Iran — they are all, in one way or another, aimed at reasserting American physical and financial control over global energy flows, gaining leverage over adversaries and allies alike, and deterring countries from breaking with the unwritten rules of the US order.
UnHerd
How Trump keeps Europe weak
