US INTEREST RATE FUTURES PRICE IN 78% CHANCE OF PAUSE IN JANUARY MEETING VS 70% BEFORE FED RATE CUT -LSEG
FUTURES IMPLY TRADERS SEE FED POLICY RATE AT 3.1% AT END-2026 AFTER FED RATE CUT, LITTLE CHANGED FROM LEVELS JUST BEFORE -LSEG
Assuming traders still price independent FED for next year. Mistake imo.
QE starts in 2 days. My outlook: party on into year end, volatility starts Q1 w/ bootlicker Hasset as FED chair:
-Rates down
-10Y up
-Gold up
-Stocks up
-Dollar down
