The thing about prediction markets is that they don't just reflect direct bets on an outcome. They also reflect bets on how others will place bets on an outcome. Once this is understood, they will start to reflect that too.

Got an email saying that Satellite's @Alby Hub missed a lightning payment because of lack of receiving capacity, yet I have currently have 1.3 million sats of receiving capacity. Smaller payments earlier today went through fine - so either something strange is going on, or someone tried to buy a LOT of Satellite CDN storage...

I doubt that the average person who lived 100 years ago had more freedom than we do today