Retail investor Bitcoin plan:
STEP 1: Buy when the price is at the cycle top because of greed ("I'll just make a few bucks and cash out")
STEP 2: Watch the price drop 20-30%
STEP 3: Sell at the bottom because of fear ("It's going to zero!")
STEP 4: Claim that Bitcoin doesn't work ("What kind of inflation hedge doesn't go up forever?!")
STEP 5: Watch the price consolidate near the bottom and get bored ("I'd rather gamble on stocks and real estate because they provide yield")
STEP 6: Ignore Bitcoin until the next cycle top, miss out on the majority of returns
Repeat STEP 1
Don't let this be you
STUDY BITCOIN
I buy Bitcoin at the bottom AND at the top because the fiat price doesn't matter to me
I bought some at $109K a few weeks ago
Some people will tell me I should have waited because I could have bought more
The same people probably didn't buy at $16K, $30K, $49K, $65K, or $72K because they wanted to wait for a lower price
I KNOW the same money would have bought more if I waited for today (~$86K), but I can guarantee you that at some point people will see $109K as a discount
Bitcoin will run out at every price
$109K will eventually be a rounding error
At some point, we will see $109K moves monthly, then weekly, then daily
I don't wait to buy Bitcoin because the price WILL run away from me at some point
My goal is simply to buy Bitcoin and wait 4 years
Holding Bitcoin over the next 6-12 months will be EXTREMELY difficult
Blackrock and MicroStrategy are going to force the price to HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS
And you're going to be tempted to sell
If you do it:
Congrats you just made a massive profit in terms of $
But remember:
You may NEVER be able to buy that amount of Bitcoin back, because the institutions buying for dollars today will NEVER sell for dollars
The same people selling their entire stack today will be working for Bitcoin in the coming decades when its price has risen 100x
You look dumb when you say Bitcoin is slow compared to Visa and MasterCard
They're not solving the same problem
Bitcoin is sound money that can be moved on a decentralized digital network (also called Bitcoin)
Visa and MasterCard move IOUs of unsound money (US Dollars) using a centralized database
The Bitcoin blockchain is the settlement layer of the Bitcoin network
Bitcoin transactions that have been confirmed can't be reversed or censored
They can be sent OR received WITHOUT the need for a central third-party
Lightning is the transaction layer of the Bitcoin network
This network is a way to take transactions off of the base layer and transact on a private database
You can set up your own Lightning node to make it trustless, or you can use apps that people have created to make it trusted (I have a limited understanding of the technicals here)
Eg. Wallet of Satoshi isn't real Lightning - from what I know, you're just using someone else's Lightning node to send and receive transactions
In the current financial system, we can send wire transfers for final settlement
Wire transfers that have been sent cannot be reversed
Wire transfers have to be sent by one financial institution to another financial institution
To send a wire transfer, you MUST complete all KYC (know your client) requirements, which are set by governments
Your bank will ask you 8,483 questions before you can send a wire transfer and you can only send it during bank hours
We use Visa and Mastercard on a day-to-day basis
Visa and MasterCard transactions can be reversed
They require a central authority's permission and can be censored if the payment processor doesn't like you or the merchant you're dealing with
They can be tracked
They can be stopped
The Bitcoin base layer is for movements of large amounts of value, Lightning is for movements of small amounts of value
You would make a payment for something like a car or a house with Bitcoin, and you would pay for coffee with lightning
Once you have a certain amount of money on Lightning, you can move it to the Bitcoin base layer
If you split all 21M Bitcoin by the 8B people on earth
You get 0.002625 BTC per person
Today this amount of Bitcoin costs ~$260
The median salary in the US is ~0.6 BTC right now
This means the median salary can buy 228 people's LIFETIME SHARE of Bitcoin
This is mathematically impossible in the long term
At some point, one year of salary won't even buy 0.002625 BTC
Most people underestimate the importance of absolute scarcity, so they're ignoring Bitcoin
Time is money
Money = Abstraction of time
Fiat currencies ≠ Money
Nobody should be able to create more of an abstraction of time without an appropriate amount of time, energy, and effort contributed to a process that creates more of the abstraction of time
Gold worked so well as money because it was extremely difficult to find more of it
Fiat can be created out of nothing
Bitcoin is the scarcest commodity in the world that can fulfill the functions of money, meaning it's a perfect representation of time
Bitcoin = Time