So what is the math saying about bitcoin price lagging behind silver and gold? There is some correalation but it is pretty weak. Time will tell, but everyone saying this is how it works is not working from a strong historical example. Mathematical Lag Analysis To quantify lags between asset movements, I computed the cross-correlation of monthly % changes over lags from -12 to +12 months, finding the lag that maximizes the Pearson correlation coefficient. Positive lag means the first asset leads the second; negative means the second leads the first. (Calculation: For each lag ( k ), correlate series1 with series2 shifted by ( k ); select ( k ) with max correlation.) BTC vs. Gold: Lag = -4 months (correlation = 0.21). Gold's moves tend to precede BTC's by ~4 months. BTC vs. Silver: Lag = -6 months (correlation = 0.23). Silver's moves tend to precede BTC's by ~6 months. Gold vs. Silver: Lag = 0 months (correlation = 0.79). No lag; they move synchronously. These lags suggest precious metals (especially Silver) may act as leading indicators for BTC movements, though the correlations are weak (0.21-0.23), indicating limited predictive power. Gold and Silver's tight link (no lag, strong corr) reflects their shared commodity dynamics, while BTC's independence drives its higher volatility.