I’ve been digging myself out of the early hole the last few weeks, though I’m still just barely under .500 overall — 14-16 for the Normal entries and 15-14-1 for the Ugly.
This week all my lines were close to the actual ones, so these picks are solely based on feel. Actually, it’s always that way — guessing the lines is just a pulse-taking exercise, not a diagnostic tool.
Normal 1 and 2
The Dolphins are a fun team, but my vibe on them is use against weak teams and fade against strong ones. The Eagles, coming off a loss, are the latter.
The Lions are arguably better than the Ravens, but this is just a feeling after they’ve played some weaker opponents.
The Packers are bad, but the Broncos are worse.
The Falcons are good except at quarterback. I think they go back to running the ball more and have success uglying it up.
The Patriots are terrible but getting eight at home is a ton, and the Bills were awfully shaky last week.
Ugly
The Colts getting 3.5 at home presumes Deshaun Watson plays, and that’s not a lock. Morever, even if he does, he might not be 100 percent.
The Giants showed up last week, and the Team is a sell high after beating the Falcons.
The Steelers are coming off a bye and play solid defense. The Rams aren’t bad, but they’re a slight sell high after last week.
I doubled up on the Falcons and Patriots because I have to make 10 picks and didn’t have much of a feel for the remaining games. And both certainly qualify as ugly.
The Dolphins are a fun team, but my vibe on them is use against weak teams and fade against strong ones. The Eagles, coming off a loss, are the latter.
The Lions are arguably better than the Ravens, but this is just a feeling after they’ve played some weaker opponents.
The Packers are bad, but the Broncos are worse.
The Falcons are good except at quarterback. I think they go back to running the ball more and have success uglying it up.
The Patriots are terrible but getting eight at home is a ton, and the Bills were awfully shaky last week.
Ugly
The Colts getting 3.5 at home presumes Deshaun Watson plays, and that’s not a lock. Morever, even if he does, he might not be 100 percent.
The Giants showed up last week, and the Team is a sell high after beating the Falcons.
The Steelers are coming off a bye and play solid defense. The Rams aren’t bad, but they’re a slight sell high after last week.
I doubled up on the Falcons and Patriots because I have to make 10 picks and didn’t have much of a feel for the remaining games. And both certainly qualify as ugly.