Guessing The Lines
Last week wasn’t too bad. I won $70 in my picking pool after going 11-3, but only 3-2 in both the Normal and Ugly faux-Super Contest picks. How did I only lose three games in the home pool and four combined with my official picks? Well, first off, the Falcons were -1.5 in the home pool and -2.5 in the contest, and secondly, I don’t always make the same picks because the lines are often different, and I sometimes just zip through the slate on feel (for my home pool) and don’t care if they line up. The most important thing is to hit the “save” button before closing the window.
In any event, it was nice finally to win some money this year, even if overall I was only 6-4 on the higher stakes entries, which aren’t really that high stakes because it’s $20 per entry, and I’m almost drawing dead in a massive field. But that would never deter me from trying to string together a couple 10-0 slates, however improbable that might be. Actually, I know exactly how improbable it is because 2^20 is 1024^2 which is just over one in a million. But stranger things have happened in this world, and I don’t really believe in luck.
Here are my initial numbers for this week:
At first glance, I’m far apart on the Titans and Texans. I see Houston and New Orleans as roughly equal teams, but the Saints are laying wood on the road. Keep in mind though that at 2.5 (below 3) it’s basically a pick ‘em, and the market just has it as a pick ‘em in the other direction. So this isn’t that big of a deal.
I made Ravens-Titans an actual pick ‘em, but the Ravens are laying a whopping four. That is a massive difference, crossing the three and even hitting four. What am I missing? The Ravens receivers probably won’t drop so many passes this week, but Tennessee is a tough, nasty team that usually shows up under Mike Vrabel. That line just seems very big to me in Tennessee… Of course it’s in London! That takes away about two of the four points, so I’d have made it Ravens minus two, but it still crosses the key number. Those London and Mexico City games are annoying.
The other fairly big discrepancies are Colts-Jaguars and Bengals-Seahawks. I’m higher on the Jaguars who seem to have gotten it together, but they have to travel back from London too.
And the Bengals look like they’re finally back with Burrow healthy and on the same page with Ja’Marr Chase. But Seattle is coming off a bye and isn’t a doormat. I’ll probably lay the wood there if it stays at three. But no commitments this early in the week.
At first glance, I’m far apart on the Titans and Texans. I see Houston and New Orleans as roughly equal teams, but the Saints are laying wood on the road. Keep in mind though that at 2.5 (below 3) it’s basically a pick ‘em, and the market just has it as a pick ‘em in the other direction. So this isn’t that big of a deal.
I made Ravens-Titans an actual pick ‘em, but the Ravens are laying a whopping four. That is a massive difference, crossing the three and even hitting four. What am I missing? The Ravens receivers probably won’t drop so many passes this week, but Tennessee is a tough, nasty team that usually shows up under Mike Vrabel. That line just seems very big to me in Tennessee… Of course it’s in London! That takes away about two of the four points, so I’d have made it Ravens minus two, but it still crosses the key number. Those London and Mexico City games are annoying.
The other fairly big discrepancies are Colts-Jaguars and Bengals-Seahawks. I’m higher on the Jaguars who seem to have gotten it together, but they have to travel back from London too.
And the Bengals look like they’re finally back with Burrow healthy and on the same page with Ja’Marr Chase. But Seattle is coming off a bye and isn’t a doormat. I’ll probably lay the wood there if it stays at three. But no commitments this early in the week.