//The Wire//2300Z July 7, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: FLOODING DEVASTATES AMERICAN SOUTH. MULTIPLE AMBUSHES REPORTED AT ICE FACILITIES IN TEXAS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -HomeFront- Texas: Severe flooding continues to impact the state following unusual weather systems producing much more precipitation than originally forecasted. Concerning casualties, 82x fatalities have been reported so far. Hundreds of rescues by small boat and helicopter have been conducted, and Search and Rescue operations continue throughout the Guadalupe and Llano River basins. Texas: This morning, a small arms engagement was reported at the CBP annex in McAllen. Authorities state that an assailant (who has not yet been identified) was waiting in ambush with multiple firearms to target CBP agents arriving for work this morning. After a short firefight, the individual was killed. This shooting comes two days after a separate skirmish was reported at the Prairieland Detention Facility in Alvarado. Friday night, an individual who was visibly armed was acting suspiciously in the vicinity of the Prairieland Detention Facility. Beyond these initial factual details, the timing of events becomes unclear. However, as this situation was unfolding, a group of insurgents were observed maneuvering tactically to the west of the facility, taking up a position haphazardly concealed in a treeline running north/south approximately 50m to the west of the facility's perimeter fence. Shortly after this observation, this element launched their attack by setting off fireworks either as a diversionary maneuver, to conceal the sound of gunfire, or to prompt police to come out of the facility to enter the killzone of their arranged ambush. During the fray, a small arms engagement erupted outside this facility, as the element of insurgents in the treeline opened fire on one of the officers attempting to investigate the situation. No one was killed during the exchange, however one officer was wounded. A total of 11x people have been arrested so far in conjunction with this attack. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The shooters arrested in conjunction with the Prairieland Detention Center skirmish appear to not necessarily be Cartel-affiliated, but the more garden-variety far-left-insurgent-type. Cartel members don't often take breaks during a small arms battle to spray paint graffiti (as has been reported taking place during this engagement), nor do more organized and professional militants usually get caught en masse like this. All of the attackers were wearing body armor at the time of their arrest, but local reports state that only one firearm was recovered (the rifle that jammed and concluded the attack). As such, this is either a very kinetic "protest" event, or a very poor ambush. Concerning the other small arms engagement (the shooting in McAllen), it's possible there is a link between the two, though authorities have not speculated publicly on this yet. Prior to his attack, the McAllen shooter had spray painted the words "Cordis Die" on his vehicle, which was used to ram the gate at the Border Patrol facility to launch the attack. This phrase is most commonly associated with video game culture (such as the Call of Duty franchise), so it's possible that the attack in Alvarado could be linked, even if it's just a loose link based on ideology. Both attacks were conducted with very obvious public relations efforts in mind, and symbology/politics was certainly a focal point of the evidence left behind. Nevertheless, there are so many attacks on Border Patrol facilities at present that it's hard to establish any clear link between all of the groups who have chosen to conduct targeting efforts. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
This week's intel update is out 👍
//The Wire//1800Z July 4, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MIGRANT CRIMINALS INCREASINGLY IMPLEMENTING ADVANCED TACTICS DURING CRIMES. TRUMP STATES NO PROGRESS MADE WITH PUTIN ON ENDING UKRAINE WAR. NORTHCOM DEPLOYS MARINES TO FLORIDA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Yesterday President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone, to discuss various issues pertaining to the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. After the phone call, President Trump stated that he was not happy with the discussion, as no progress was made on concluding the war in Ukraine. Florida: Yesterday afternoon, U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) released a statement confirming that 200 U.S. Marines will be deployed to the state to provide logistical support to ICE. The press release also stated that more deployments are expected. California: A total of 7x Central and South American migrants were arrested yesterday in conjunction with a jewelry heist that occurred back in May. Local authorities state that the Bidrussian Jewelry store in Glendale was burglarized by the seven assailants, who exhibited more advanced tactics than normally presented during a standard smash-and-grab. The city's 911 service and internet connectivity was impacted due to the thieves cutting communications cables and using signal jammers during the robbery. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The use of signal jammers is interesting in that it's a major indicator for the progression of the sophistication of crime in an area. All of the assailants were caught, so it didn't work out too well for them in the end, however this is the latest example of how criminals are learning tactics from around the world. Criminals in South Africa, for instance, are legendary for their widespread use of jammers during criminal activities, both to prevent victims from calling emergency services, but also to disable WiFi cameras and GPS tracking devices. Similarly, the cutting of communications cables has been noted as being effective due to the commonality of climate activists cutting cables in sabotage operations throughout Europe. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z July 3, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: AX ATTACK STRIKES GERMANY. JUDGES CONTINUE TO HALT IMMIGRATION AND DEPORTATION POLICIES. RECONCILIATION BILL PASSES IN CONGRESS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Germany: Dissent is mounting following a wave of assaults at public swimming pools throughout the nation. Following the assault of 8x children by Syrian immigrants last week, German authorities have implemented a nationwide media campaign to educate immigrants to the idea that it is not acceptable to assault children. Continuing the trend of violent attacks, an unidentified assailant conducted an ax attack on a train in Bavaria this morning. 4x people were wounded in the attack. The assailant has not been identified (as is standard policy) however locals who witnessed the attack state that attacker was Syrian, however this has not been confirmed yet. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Despite the recent ruling from the US Supreme Court regarding the judgements of lower courts, a federal judge (Judge Brian Cogan) has blocked the White House's efforts to remove the Temporary Protection Status (TPS) from roughly 500,000 Haitian migrants. Separately, a different judge (Judge Randolph Moss) ruled against President Trump's order to increase scrutiny on those seeking political asylum in the United States from Mexico. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Congress, controversy continues regarding the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB). Following last-minute political deals, filibusters, and various political moves, the bill was passed in the House today and is expected to be on President Trump's desk for signature tomorrow. Considering this bill's long history, being introduced in the House, sent to the Senate where changes were made, and then sent back to the House, it will probably be some time before the true contents of the omnibus bill are examined closely. Most of the political pork added to the bill to pretend to appease voters in the House was immediately stripped by the Senate, and further changes were made once the bill landed back in the House. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//1215Z June 22, 2025// //IMMEDIATE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES CONDUCTS AIRSTRIKES IN IRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: A few moments ago, President Trump posted a statement on social media, confirming that a series of airstrikes has been carried out at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. In the post, President Trump stated that all of the aircraft involved are out of Iranian airspace, and has insinuated that this is a one-and-done series of attacks. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, no additional details have been provided. President Trump has not yet held a press conference, nor has the White House, so every American is discovering that the United States has struck Iran from a single social media post. A few moments after this announcement, President Trump's account on Truth Social went offline, leading many to wonder if this was some sort of cybersecurity event. Further details are expected to emerge in due time, however right now we have nothing but the post from President Trump's Truth Social account. At this time, Congress has NOT declared war on Iran, however, if the hundreds of aircraft that have been moved into the CENTCOM theater over the past few days are any indication, this is probably not a one-and-done series of attacks. There are simply too many resources spread throughout the Middle East for this to be over just yet. Strategic Indications and Warnings: HFGCS traffic has been elevated over the past few days/weeks, however no extremely concerning EAMs have been detected over the past few hours. Radio chatter on the Russian BearNet is also quiet at this time. This strike lines up with the timing of the B2 Spirit stealth bombers which took off from Whiteman AFB this morning with what was assessed at the time to be a full payload of munitions. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z June 20, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC AVIATION AND NAVAL FORCES CONTINUE STAGING IN MIDDLE EAST.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Targeting efforts by Iranian forces continue with multiple missile strikes being reported in Haifa overnight, targeting the Negev Advanced Technologies Park. Israeli targeting continues in similar fashion in Tehran. The United Kingdom has evacuated their Embassy in Tehran, and the United States continues to maneuver substantial resources into the Middle East. Maersk has announced that they are suspending all operations in the port city of Haifa while the war remains kinetic. AC: This afternoon a 5.4M earthquake was detected originating in the vicinity of Tehran. Considering that tensions are extremely high throughout the region, this has led many to theorize that some sort of weapons test was carried out (as nuclear tests are normally detected by seismic sensors). However, at the moment, nothing points to this outcome. The USGS plots the earthquake at an estimated depth of 10km, which is far deeper than a nuclear test would be. Additionally, the seismic signature of a man-made explosive device can easily be discerned from natural phenomenon, so if it was a man-made blast every seismologist in the world will be able to verify it. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the war continues in the Middle East, a bit of background knowledge may be helpful in understanding the grand strategy of the military tactics at hand. Both Israel and Iran are unique nations in that geography separates them, yet neither have any real expeditionary capability. In short, if a nation is at war with another...but doesn't share a land border or have a military with an amphibious capability... the most that nation can do is more or less to lob missiles at their adversary. So far, both nations have relied upon this long-distance targeting means as their primary way of waging war: Iran launches missiles, and the Israelis drop bombs. However, Israeli military doctrine is heavily reliant upon deception and subterfuge in order to project influence even within the nations they are at war with. Right now, it is becoming more clear that Israeli Special Forces are able to operate on the ground within Iran, in many cases with impunity. Israel was able to create a "drone base" in the desert from which their initial attacks were launched within Iran itself (echoing Ukraine's sneak attack in Russia). Similarly, Iranian forces have discovered several instances of equipment emplaced on the ground very close to sensitive sites; overnight the Iranians discovered a remotely-controlled Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) launcher emplaced outside Tehran, in addition to a small truck that was laden with drones (again, exactly as was used by Ukraine recently). Several propaganda videos of strikes in Iran have raised questions as to exactly how the footage was taken. For example, Israeli forces released the footage of the strikes on the Arak Heavy Water facility...footage which appears to have been filmed from an elevated position on the ground...not from a drone as one might expect. This will be important to consider as American involvement appears be looming. In less than two months, large-scale sneak-attacks via drones and asymmetric warfare tactics have become normalized in two major conflicts. This is not a threat that is years away; this threat has gone from the drawing board to operationally proven (twice) in just a few weeks. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//0300Z June 13, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES. IRAN VOWS RETALIATION//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: A few moments ago Israeli forces conducted large-scale missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities scattered around the nation. The Uranium enrichment and storage facility at Natanz is currently on fire, and the Heavy Water manufacturing center at Arak has also been struck. Several decapitation strikes were reported among key leaders in Tehran, with the leadership of the Iranian nuclear program being the chief target for the first wave of targeting efforts. AC: Regarding other sites, the fog of war prevents an accurate assessment of which locations have been struck, so the battle damage assessments will have to wait a few hours while the dust settles. Iranian media is currently reporting that Iran is expected to officially declare war soon, though this may be more of a reflection of battlefield excitement rather than official government policy. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Immediately after the first strikes were reported, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States was not involved in these strikes. Texas: A ground stop has been issued for the George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston. AC: At the moment it's not clear as to what the ground stop is in reference to, other than a general security incident. More details will have to follow later on. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Right now, the immediate concerns center around a near-mid-far threat assessment model, both in terms of physical distance and time: Local threats take precedent over far-away threats, and fast-paced, time sensitive problems must be handled before long term problems that can wait. At the moment, 'near' threat concerns involve potential malign actors conducting attacks in the United States, 'mid-range' concerns pertain to logistics, shipping, and the US personnel that may be within range of any potential Iranian counterattack. Long-term concerns will develop later on as the world awaits Iran's response. Iran does not have the capability to directly strike the American homeland, but they can certainly strike many critical American sites around the Middle East. Considering that Iran had at least four days of very obvious advanced notice of these attacks, that will be a factor to consider as events develop. Locally to the homefronts of most Western nations, the chief concern is that of Iranian agents, saboteurs, and sympathizers that may be located in positions to cause problems. There are no specific threats that have come to light regarding potential terrorism within the homeland as retaliation, however those indicators would probably not be discernible before any attack anyway. Regardless of the politics behind this action, both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protests are now extremely high-risk events to attend or be located near. Currently the social situation in the United States is primed for any kinetic activity which may strike the match and light the fuse of the tensions that have been building for some time. The context of the thousands of kinetic protests being undertaken right now in nearly every single US State must also be considered; there is enough overlap between the demonstrators currently causing problems, and those who seek to carry out more substantial attacks. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//