Thread

Rekt

Hard to comprehend after the brain wash.

Yeah. Brutal. This harsh revelation lead me to quit my fiat-mining job and career. Never looked back.

Yes, the lack of a source is problematic.

Sure, one income down the coal pit and a house with all the asbestos you’d ever need. Upgrade your complaint

Do you think the printing will stop? If the printing stops, then we'll see a drawdown probably.

Of course it is. Trump is not going to count all the gold in the reserve as he claimed. That would show how little actual, physical gold is available.

Bubbles are normally driven by some kind of irrational exuberance and they aren't backed by sound financial logic, like the tech bubble in 2000 and the housing bubble in 2008. The value of the dollar continues to drop rapidly, and devaluing the dollar has been policy for decades, which would explain the move in gold. Recent inflation as well. I'm not sure what the rationale would be to call it a bubble. I'm all about bitcoin. I don't own gold. But I think the recent moves in gold seem justified and based in reality, not some over-the-top speculation. I also think bitcoin drains a lot of the capital out of gold in the coming years.

Do you really think the etfs that are driving the gold price have the gold either?

Did the printing stop when gold was flat for 35 years or when it was falling for 20 years in the last century alone?

Gold has been flat or falling in even nominal terms for more years than it has been rising in the last 100 years alone while your two ‘sound financial logic’ conditions existed.

Those were not my two 'sound financial conditions' - they were the opposite - unsound financial conditions. The bubbles happened because tons of capital chased unsound business models like unprofitable web businesses and mortgage securities based on inflated housing prices sold to people who couldn't afford them. Tons of capital chasing unsound business practices produces bubbles that pop. How does that relate to Gold currently? What is unsound about the capital piling into gold when the dollar is losing value and inflation has soared?

Ask that to someone who cashed out gold down 65% nominal in 1999 after believing people like you in 1980, when inflation had been high and the dollar had been falling right up to the peak

You're right to bring up the 1980s, but the context is key. Gold's price ran up hard to 1980 because of massive inflation in the 70s. The crash then happened because the Fed successfully fought inflation by raising rates to over 20%, which made the dollar stronger and killed the need for an inflation hedge. Today, we're in a very different environment. Central banks are not aggressively fighting inflation, and the market knows that rates are about to come down again, even with the stock market and gold at all-time highs and inflation above target, and an out-of-control national debt. The rise in gold isn't based on a speculative chase; it's a direct response to a loss of confidence in the underlying currency. A bubble is when prices rise detached from fundamentals. But in this case, the fundamentals—money printing and fiscal irresponsibility—are what's driving the price. This isn't a bubble; it's a revaluation of gold to account for the depreciation of the dollar.

Ask someone who has chashed out Bitcoin down 75% nominal in 2022 after believing people like you in 2021...

Just because I didn't mention all the paper gold doesn't mean I don't know about it. Of course that is also contributing to the bubble.

Gold is used as the most stable reference point due to it's direct correlation with the energy and labour cost of mining and extraction it. Is demand high, more mining will happen. Is demand/price low mining is not feasible. Secondly gold has always been a valued commodity all around the world. So, believing printed paper by an obscure private entity, unlimited, is a more stable reference point than gold is stupidity.

True but I think gold bugs often use the lack of reserve gold as a bullish driver

The fact that basically every country would prefer imperfect printed paper tells you all you need to know about their unwillingness to value everything against your pet rock. Stop wasting your crayons.

Your ai is even more stupid than you are. First, there is no fundamental rule that gold must be valued at a certain USD price based on how much USD is in circulation. If there was gold would always reflect money in circulation, which it doesn’t. Second, gold has not become more valuable. It is still a yellow pet rock. Gold has risen because real yields have fallen, causing people to speculate (italics) on non yield bearing assets. Go and defend silver too if you like, it has risen too. This unwinds as soon as real yields rise, not when ‘gold reprices higher’. So this is the definition of a bubble. But feel free to keep wasting the earth’s energy producing garbage outputs like this, at least it will prevent you buying more crayons to chew on.

Easy calculation: - In 1950: with a us median income of 3000$ you could buy 75oz of gold (40$/oz). - In 2025: with a us median income of 85000$ you can buy 22.5oz of gold (3775$/oz) Supposing a year with 251 laboral days, that means, to get 1 oz of gold: - In 1950 you need to work 3 days - In 2025 you need to work 11 days #gold #income #inflation

Yeah, but some other stats i add in. Pork - pounds of pork you had to sell at th at that time to make an oz of gold, pounds of pork to make the median wage, Minimum wage at that time in gold per year. Denoting the split of labor and doing it as household income is also great because then you can see that now we work twice as hard for half as much gold.

1971. Went off the gold standard and gold was revalued.

Great Scott! Precisely 😉

65 is distorted, because the dollar was still officially pegged to gold, but there were way more dollars than could be backed.

It was the only decentralized currency in its heyday