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Russell Napier is one of my favorite macro analysts that I've learned a lot from over the years. Had the chance to meet him at a dinner the other day and discuss macro with him. Him and I often have similar macro views and a focus on the topic of fiscal dominance and the financial repression that follows. But an area of historic difference is that he has viewed Bitcoin as unlikely to win. He has viewed it as something that governments will ultimately not allow to function once the gloves come off and financial repression gets real from the major powers. So I discussed that with him, since while I acknowledge that threat as being real, I think Bitcoin is a solid foundation to push back with. But in addition, I also highlighted Nostr, and decentralized comms and social media in general. Back in the 1930s-1940s when the US banned gold ownership and implemented yield curve control (hard core financial repression), information moved slowly. A lot of information was one-directional. It was hard for people to coordinate with each other at large scales. But social media changes the game entirely. People can meme about it in real time. Government and central bank social media accounts can get ratio'd. Maybe one day they'll try to put a stop to that on centralized social media platforms, but that's why the decentralized protocols are so important. The tools are simply much better today, making that type of smooth and coordinated financial repression harder to do since all of their reasons can be dissected and dunked on in real time.

Replies (33)

Yes and no. You could say the same about government control. Years ago you could imagine that with social media, governments would have a difficult time trying to control people, because they could organize protests in social media, and have freedom of information. But as you can see, even with social media, governments like china control all the society easily. When you promote shit entertainment like TikTok, Netflix and other things, you make people dumb, they won’t be curious and search for information about daily problems like why is the financial system fucked. And bitcoin, is not exactly easy to comprehend for most people.
Well put. It’s a crucial distinction between the past and the present that so many (myself included lol) are still wrapping our heads around. There is a book ‘The Future is Faster Than You Think’ which helped me realize the radicalness of the shifts we face, most esp when the different tech tools/advancements coalesce.
What precisely is it about improved coordination that negates the financial repression tools which Napier claims will destroy Bitcoin? I believe we need to make it sufficiently difficult for the government to control large swathes of the UTXO set to avoid what happened to gold, but I don’t quite see how better/faster communication tools help very much there.
I don’t necessarily disagree. Lyn didn’t say exactly what Napier thinks govt would do so I’m guessing what I think is the most common claim: they co-opt a few entities that control a large (and growing) portion of the UTXO set and either outright seize it, or do something else like a forced fork onto “gov chain”. Maybe that’s not the angle. But if it is, how does the likes of Nostr combat it effectively? And if it’s not the govt angle, what would it be?
in addition to the financial repression that they can do at any time, it is also necessary to be prepared for attacks from large companies, because surely they will try to do something to spoil the development of more decentralized social networks, because if they think about it, 'nostr' goes against the business that companies like Google have, meta and chatgpt in which they need to collect millions of data both for AI and to earn money, and this protocol, by allowing you to connect to your own servers, means that the information is not concentrated in a single place, which for them is not suits them.
Out of curiosity, how will that threat (i.e. “governments not allowing it to function”) look like from your perspective? Maybe I’m missing something but I think most they can do is tax the hell out of people who hold it in self custody and report it (capital gains, both realized and even unrealized), or even make its ownership illegal in order to get some to comply. But even then (and by the way I see that scenario a 100% probability one, at least in some countries), I don’t see how Bitcoin “would not function”. People would still be using it. Granted, not everybody. And granted, maybe out of the law. But precisely in that scenario would Bitcoin be the life boat on a sinking ship, and not an NGU scheme for getting some alpha. The Atlas Shrugged scenario is quite a possible one, at least from my viewpoint looking at things from a western EU country.
Technology can make moving thrle overtone window harder, but can't stop it. If the people won't rise up against the banning of Bitcoin, government will be able to ban. Or even easier, choke any glimmer of freedom from it. I fear Bitcoin is a trap for those who value freedom.
Watching the stable coin integration coming, Allowing stablecoins to circumvent traditional banks really leads me to believe otherwise. The stablecoin will be the layer of insulation between bitcoin, And CBDC’s. The Fed will bail out its top winners, And absolve predatory tokens as it seems fit, “creating borderless liquidity”. I feel lucky to have access to a bank account that I can use to buy stablecoins and with stablecoins bitcoin. I think the narrative that bitcoin will replace the dollar as the world reserve currency has been disproven, And will instead become a reserve asset in compliment to the dollar. In the distant future I see the State of Israel becoming the center of the western axis of power. Israel was the longest disenfranchised empire, Ahead of the Romans, Them the European powers. The slow decline of the Anglo-American age will lead to the rise of the Neo-Judean order for the west. There will still be a multipolar rise of the BRICS nations as they catch up to a modern quality of life, Likely seeing the most growth over the next 100 years, And the people from those countries will see the greatest benefit in terms of quality of life. The west will see a revival of its economic power starting in Israel and following with the countries and individuals participating in cooperation with this economic progress. The west carries the modern status quo that the BRICS nations strive towards, And China leads in terms of quality of life and economic development, Followed by India, And behind them Brazil and many African countries benefiting from Chinese trade relations.
Lyn, I would love to have been a fly on the wall observing that chat. I’m a big fan it Russel Napier and the Library of Mistakes. Hopefully Russell invites you on to discuss broken money one day and debate some of these threat vectors in detail. I would love for Russell to speak on a few bitcoin podcasts, his contrarian call on the SE Asian financial crises and his retelling tales from that era in the late 90’s was not dissimilar to a big short style and worthy of a movie. The Library of Mistakes at its core is an archive for all things wrong with the Fiat system. In a decade I think they have a section titled “Bitcoin Fixes This”.
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Agree Russel Napier is easily top 5 people on the planet to listen to (for me). Here is my top 10: 1. Grant Williams 2. Robert Friedland 3. Luke Gromen 4. Lyn Alden 5. Russel Napier 6. Preston Pysh 7. Pippa Malmgren 8. Adam Rozencwajg 9. Josh Crumb 10. Jeff Booth