You can say that Bitcoin is the ultimate truth-teller, sniffs out liquidity conditions, whales selling because finally have liquidity to realize profits, BTC only thing you can sell on a Friday night or Sunday after a Trump tweet, etc.
But with ETFs and treasury companies buying up BTC and all the tailwinds with new administration, pending/revised friendly policy, regulation changes, sovereign adoption, banks getting onboard with bullish announcements after announcements, other hard money and risk assets going up...
...it has to be some form of manipulation. I see things about Jane Street algos, etc...but just seems like there is a coordinated effort to (1) keep the ground unsteady regarding rate changes, Fed chairs, SBR or no SBR, Yen carry-trade and (2) using algos or simple institution adoption/announcements to keep BTC trading in a fairly narrow and SUPPRESSED price range. Or do we just have incredibly skittish and ignorant investors following typical "buy high, sell low" emotional selling patterns?
And many of the BTC thought leaders who were picking $150k, $250k, $1M by the end of this cycle...are now saying $150k by end of next year?
I'm not complaining too much because most of what I have is in retirement accounts I can't touch anyway (so longer time preference)...but I did start living on a BTC standard late this year...so buying at $108k and $118k hurts when using BillPay to convert BTC at $82k etc. So I do have a short-time preference component, too.
Anybody want to add to the discussion any amended thoughts on how the price stays suppressed? I was hoping for a steady grind up with all of the chopsolidation diverging from historical price behavior - versus huge candles in both directions - but you know we are likely to get some huge green candles in Q1 and Q2 2026...and then big red candles as people take profits...so sub-$100k could still be in play a few times in 2026.
FYI - I follow the folks below for my signal...and subscribe to both Lyn and James Check.
@jack mallers @Lyn Alden @npub1d3f4...r4xv @_CheckΙ±ate πβ‘πβ’οΈπ’οΈ
