$MSTR - Roadmap 2025 BTC Per Share KPI Alright, no plan can proceed without ensuring we will meet our targets. After all, a KPI was communicated to the market and we need to make sure MSTR will achieve the 8% yield in 2025. So let's see if we made the cut. First we must see how we wrapped up Q4 2024 so we know our BTC/Share metric entering 2025 to measure against. We started Q4 with a fully diluted share count of 235,118,899 (you'll have to take my word for it). This amount includes RSUs/Options of 5,704,000 which I will leave constant throughout. Q4 2024 Actions In Q4, we had 2 actions taken. We issued a $725M 2029 Convertible Noted offering with a strike price of $252/Share resulting in new shares of 2,876,984. Additionally, we utilized the full ATM amount of $890,000,000. I am assuming this got utilized at $175 per share so this results in 5,085,714 new shares immediately outstanding. So with these two actions in mind, we exit 2024 with our 276,170 Bitcoin and 243,081,597 Fully Diluted Shares. 2024 BTC per Fully Diluted Share = 0.00113612 (2024 Yield of 24.41%, impressive) Q1 2025 Actions This quarter had 2 actions. The 2027 note converted adding 7,330,050 to the shares outstanding, but no new impact to the fully diluted share metric. Aside from that, it was free cash flow purchases only of 69 Bitcoin to achieve a total of 276,239 BTC. Q1 2025 BTC per Share = 0.00113640 Q2 2025 Actions A much busier quarter. We converted the 2028 and 2030 notes which added 5,513,489 and 5,341,600 to the shares outstanding, but these don't impact the fully diluted share metric. What did impact our metric was replacing these two convertible notes with new 2028 and 2030 notes both carrying a $399 strike price and new shares of 1,879,699 for each (3,759,398 total). We now have 291,239 BTC and 246,840,996 fully diluted shares. Q2 2025 BTC per Share = 0.00117986 Q3 2025 Actions Very similar to Q2, the 2031 and 2032 notes converted adding 6,509,510 new shares outstanding, but once again this doesn't impact our fully diluted metric. But once again, we replaced these notes with 2 new notes for 2031 and 2032 with strike prices of $462 adding new shares of 1,136,364 each to our fully diluted metric (2,272,728 total). We now have 300,000 BTC and 249,113,724 fully diluted shares. Q3 2025 BTC per Share = 0.00120427 Q4 2025 Actions In Q4 the 2029 note we issued in Q4 2024 converted adding 2,876,984 new outstanding shares, but no impact to fully diluted. We then replaced this with yet another 2029 note at a strike price of $560 which added 937,500 new shares to our fully diluted metric. We now close 2025 with 303,750 BTC and 250,051,224 Fully Diluted Shares. This gives us a BTC per fully diluted share at the end of 2025 of 0.00121475. So now the moment of truth, did we hit the goal. Well our 2025 Yield would be (0.00121475 - 0.00113612) / 0.00113612 which gives us....... 6.92% OH NO! WE HAVE FAILED! As everyone knows, close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades so we cannot let this slide. Well, this is why we test our scenarios before we commit to them. But fear not, all is not lost and we will right this ship! And it's actually a pretty simple fix. Our problem in this scenario is we got too aggressive in Q4 2024 which gives us a higher exit rate out of 2024 and stole progress from Q1 2025. So how are we going to fix this? It's pretty straight forward, we are going to split the $890,000,000 ATM evenly between Q4 2024 and Q5 2025. Now, this does mean we will ultimately accumulate less Bitcoin than our first strategy (BTC price estimated to be higher in Q1 than Q4 so our money doesn't get us as many BTC) but hitting KPIs matters in the equity markets and missing a target is likely more impactful to the share price than holding less Bitcoin at the end. People will argue this, but it's my scenario so I'm sticking with this thought. I won't bore you with running through every single figure by quarter again, so I'll stick to the cliff notes here. Evenly splitting the ATM gives us an exit from 2024 with the following metrics: End of Q4 2024 Updated Metrics Outstanding Shares (info Only): 206,350,250 Fully Diluted Shares Count: 241,710,883 Bitcoin in Treasury: 267,805 BTC / Fully Diluted Share: 0.00110796 End of Q4 2025 Updated Metrics Outstanding Shares (info Only): 235,038,383 Fully Diluted Share Count: 249,797,009 Bitcoin in Treasury: 300,059 BTC / Fully Diluted Share: 0.00120121 So now we hold on to our seats while we see if we were able to course correct. This gives us (0.00120121 - 0.00110796) / 0.00110796 or........ 8.42% Annual Yield Phew, close call but we pulled it off while keeping our cash flow metrics the same as the original post since we only needed to change the execution of the existing ATM and could leave our convertible roadmap untouched. So in summary, this course doesn't seem like much of a stretch. They can certainly exit 2025 hitting their 8% KPI and allowing themselves continued flexibility with strong free cash flow to do whatever they need to do in 2026 to keep their momentum and building a continuously stronger BTC per share metric. Am I right in this scenario? Who knows, markets are anything but linear. But it's very fun to do the thought exercises to see what the possibilities are. So let's keep an eye on 2025 and see where we wrap up. My prediction is we don't lack any excitement! View quoted note →