China Evening Missive
One of many points raised and discussed with Marty last night. The Chinese understand how the American political calendar works and they fully use it to their advantage.
Basically, the calculus follows along these lines. When Thanksgiving arrives everyone’s attention in the US turns completely to the holidays. Nothing gets accomplished out of Washington.
There are 81 days until Thanksgiving.
Next thing you know it’s Jan 4th and people are - begrudgingly - back to normal life. But it is a day that will also mark the start of the mid-term political cycle. All energies will be spent by those working to maintain power or the other side will be working to tirelessly to regain power.
There will be little, if any, bandwidth to address foreign policy issues. This dynamic is actually behind why the Trump team has been so quick out of the gate since inauguration. The entire team knows the clock is ticking.
And the Chinese know this as well. They are also aware, as keen students of American history, that the current party in power almost always loses one or both chambers of Congress.
Conclusion? For China there is zero need to pursue any deal. Just play nice and bide for time. Then see how 2026 plays out and adjust accordingly.
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-new-trade-talk-strategy-49fb1f1a?st=mSzwUf&reflink=article_copyURL_share