Numerous countries' ledgers are overwhelmed by debt. These countries usurp the wealth of their citizens through increased fiat currency creation to sustain these highly indebted levels. Their centralized ledgers are controlled by widespread corruption, with those who benefit the most tightly controlling the nation's money supply. A publicly auditable and fully decentralized ledger is the only solution. #Bitcoin #BTC / Fiat / #Nostr / #Plebs

The last time there was a prolonged contraction of the broad U.S. money supply was right before the Great Depression. Such a contraction has never occurred while global dollar-denominated global debt is so high. #Debt / #Recession / #Economy / #Bitcoin / #BTC

Whenever someone says they're "taking profit" on their #Bitcoin, I feel sorry for them because it means they don't understand Bitcoin well and are still measuring value in perpetually decaying #fiat currency. While selling Bitcoin and then buying it back for less fiat may work on very short timeframes -- if one gets lucky -- over the long term, fiat currency will continue to decay in value against Bitcoin as the supply of fiat moves up exponentially over time while the supply of Bitcoin remains forever fixed.

By approving a Bitcoin spot ETF, the #SEC will facilitate mass adoption of Bitcoin, but it will also pave the road for banks to eliminate self-custody. Portfolio managers will increasingly incorporate these ETFs into their #portfolio holdings, which will increasingly render #Bitcoin an established asset. This, in turn, will impair the government's ability to subsequently ban Bitcoin. Nonetheless, there will come a time when the traditional #banking system fails, and the governments that are controlled by multinational banks will seek to impose a ban on the self-custody of Bitcoin. The mandate will be similar to Executive Order #6102, which banned the self-custody of gold in 1933 to curtail widespread bank failures. The very purpose of a bank is to #custody your assets for you, as this is how bankers siphon off your wealth to enrich themselves. Thus, your ability to self-custody assets is a direct threat to the #banks and they will try to stop you from holding your assets in self-custody. They will use the government to compel you by law to send your Bitcoin to a #FederalReserve bank in exchange for fiat #CBDC or paper Bitcoin (shares of a Bitcoin spot #ETF). This time around, however, bankers (and the governments they control) will be unable to stop the self-custody of #decentralized, permissionless digital money. We've entered an era where many digital assets are being held in the custody of decentralized protocols or #DAOs. These decentralized entities are not fully within the jurisdiction of any government and the protocols that govern their assets are not centrally controllable. This will become a major problem for banks because there is no entity, (no person, no corporation, no governmental body), that they can compel by force to turn over the assets. Banks will soon discover that not only are they unable to control decentralized protocols, but that these protocols will replace them completely. The bank-led government crackdown on #centralized exchanges that we're currently seeing only increases the market share and utilization of #decentralized protocols. The more the government cracks down on cryptocurrency, the more decentralized it becomes, which counterintuitively makes it harder to regulate. Governments will next try to use CBDC to prevent the convertibility of fiat currency into decentralized digital assets. However, this will not only fail in this aim, but it will further destabilize the #fiat system by dramatically increasing money velocity, which is an input for inflation. Although inflation will also increase because of many other causes (e.g. spiraling public debt), higher inflation will bring fiat currency ever closer to the hyperinflationary event horizon. The worse inflation becomes, the less willing ordinary people are to convert their #labor into increasingly worthless fiat currency. As a result, ordinary people will increasingly seek to convert their labor directly into Bitcoin and/or other perpetually scarce digital assets that protect purchasing power over time better than hyperinflating fiat currency. Eventually, cryptocurrency and de-fi protocols will come to be viewed as the natural evolution of financial markets. By restoring hard money, through means of trustless, decentralized, and publicly auditable protocols, de-fi is paving the way for a more stable financial system that is not perpetually plagued by financial crises that are inherent to a trust-based system fraught with counterparty risks. By creating a trustless protocol, the #Byzantine Generals' problem has been solved. For the first time in the history of financial markets, #counterparty risk has been effectively minimized. Counterparty risk is what has underpinned every great financial #crisis in the past.

Reverse repos spiked as expected. Typical year-end window dressing. From here on out RRPs will rapidly descend toward zero. #RRPs / #RPs / #FedPivot / #Fed / #FOMC / #MonetaryPolicy / #Recession / #InterestRates

⚠️ The #HYG / #TLT (adjusted) ratio just printed a gravestone doji on the 4-month chart. All oscillators on this timeframe are as over-extended as they've ever been. A reversal is likely coming in 2024. This is a major #recession warning. This ratio tops in the lead up to an economic recession, and it bottoms near business cycle lows. This chart is warning that we're likely near a major market top. #Bonds / #Treasury / #Fed / #FOMC / #InterestRates / #AAPL / #TSLA / #MSFT / #NVDA / #Recession / #Stagflation / #Bitcoin / #Trading / #Investing / #Gold / #Nostr

Invesco DB Energy Fund DBE just formed an inverted hammer on the 6-month candlestick timeframe. This may be signaling a major reversal (though it won't necessarily happen right away). #DBE's overall structure on this timeframe is a bull flag (shaded in red). Price has descended to and is appearing to find support on the EMA ribbon. #Energy is likely to break out right as we head into a recession, which could cause strong stagflation. #Commodities / #Gold / #Bitcoin / #Inflation

Breakwave Dry Bulk #Shipping ETF tracks the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures. Following the start of the #Israel-#Hamas war, it has jumped over 150% from its bottom in July. This is not something you want to see right before #interest rate cuts. #Commodity / #Inflation / #Recession / #Stagflation / #Trading / #Investing

Economists are totally stumped about why #consumer sentiment remains so low despite a 'robust #economy', but the answer may be simple. Here's a chart of consumer sentiment with the #dilution of the #monetary base as an overlay (in red). Consumers are feeling the pain of having their purchasing power diluted, and thus their sentiment is low. In other words, sentiment has been correlating with (real) purchasing power. The #Fed has been using the #CPI to paint a much better picture of inflation than is actually occurring. The problem for the Fed is that even though it can try to downplay the real rate of #inflation, consumers are sensing that inflation is much worse than is being reported and this is being reflected in sentiment data. With that said, if you think things are bad now, currency inflation is poised to get far worse in the years ahead as the ratio of interest on public debt to #GDP spirals higher... Note: To illustrate the dilution of purchasing power I used the formula: 1/(WALCL-RRPONTTLD-WTREGEN). This formula represents the value of one U.S. dollar relative to the total monetary base. The expression #WALCL-#RRPONTTLD-#WTREGEN reflects the assets on the Fed's balance sheet that determine the monetary base.

#Ether appears to be printing two gravestone dojis in a row on the 2-week candlestick chart. If this pattern is confirmed, a retracement is likely at the start of 2024. The last time a similar pattern formed, #ETH corrected about 15%. #ETHUSD / #Ethereum / #ETHUSDT / #ERC20