The AI Bubble Blows Astronomically
Well, if you were wondering where we were in the AI "Dotcom Redux" Bubble...
Welcome to the "dATa CeNTeRs IN sPAcE" phase.
We are here because we've reached the point where nothing but hype can push these stocks further. OpenAI is one big hype machine, but they all do it. (They're spending something like $2.60 per $1 of revenue now, and that's going in the wrong direction.) Hype, hype, hype.
And what's the hype tied to? What's the construct on which these equities permanently pump?
Data centers! More data centers. Infinite data centers, all subsidized by your power bills. But they take up a lot of space—increasing amounts of it, in fact. So what better way to solve this little obstacle than to fill space itself with big, solar-powered space computers?!? That should be cost effective, no?
Jeff Bezos is in a unique position. Everyone knows he has tons of money, but Amazon is lagging in the AI race against OpenAI, xAI, Google, AliBaba, etc. and Blue Origin is lagging in the space (and moreover, federal contract) race against SpaceX. What better way to generate fanfare for all of the above than bunkum about Data Death Stars?
He's not alone. Elon Musk is known for this sort of thing. Take Tesla's eternally imminent truly autonomous cars and the endless cascade of announcements to that effect. Or that time he said AI would excel humans by...this year. Dario Amodei has been projecting superhuman intelligence in 2-3 years for 2-3 years (not to mention 90% of all coding being done by AI by...this past September). Demis Hassabis of Google is not one to be outdone; he promised "curing all diseases, solving climate and energy issues, and ushering in “radical abundance," thereby reducing human selfishness & ending global conflict.
Altman was doing hype cycle after hype cycle all the time before he & Huang figured out their little shares-for-chips shell game. Remember his crackpot manifestos? And his babbling about "superhuman reasoning" and "solving physics" for good? Only to have his fundraising machine upended by an open-source LLM like DeepSeek focused on efficiency & efficacy instead of grandiosity & the next sucker.
Sam's going to need still more money soon; look for his upcoming white paper on the intergalactic eradication of want & suffering by ChatGPT.
They all have at least a little Elizabeth Holmes in them. Most of them have more than a little. That's a symptom of the financial circuitry of the system, but that's a story for another day.
It's the audience that tells you what's driving the AI train at this point. The host seems a sensible individual, and you can see the bafflement in his visage both times they show it. But the crowd! Oh, the crowd. That they don't burst into laughter on the spot says a whole lot about where we are & where we're going.
Hold on to your ass.
[Originally published on Telegram on October 7th]
