BTC Daily Intelligence Bulletin (DIB)
Block: 871,039
DTG/ICOD: 1200Z 19Nov24
Precedence: Routine (RR)
Controls: Public Release
QQQQ
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BLUF: Ukraine Uses US Missiles on Russia / Hong Kong Jails Pro-Democracy Campaigners / Farmers Protest in UK Tax Increase / Pennsylvania Supreme Court Tells Dems to Stop Counting / Army Vet Sentenced in J6 Protest / DAOs Ruled as Partnerships, All Are Liable / Porter Looks to Open-Source Bitcoin Reserve Plan / Bitcoin Value Topples Saudi Aramco After Silver / MicroStrategy Sells $1.75B Notes For More BTC / BTC Exchange Levels Dropping / Lowery Applies For White House BTC Advisor / Marathon Digital Increases Note Offering For More BTC / Game Theory Gains Steam
Market Data: Price: 1 BTC= $91,597, 34.85 oz Gold, .21 Median US House
24hr Hi: $92,775 / Lo: $89,393
Vol: $72B (Up 35%)
Mkt Cap: $1.81T (Up 2%)
HashRate: 752 EH/s
Avg Fee Rate: 6 sats/vBtye (Even)
Nodes: 19,528
---Reports---
-International Events-
1. Ukraine strikes arsenal amid reports U.S. ATACMS used in Russia for first time: Kyiv said on Tuesday it struck a Russian arsenal near the town of Karachev in the Bryansk region, over 110 km (70 miles) from Ukraine, in what two Ukrainian media outlets reported was a first strike with U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles. A report from Russia's state news agency TASS said Russian air defence forces had shot down 85 drones and five ballistic missiles launched by Ukraine in the past 24 hours. (Reuters) (AC-A major escalation in the war.)
2. Hong Kong jails 45 pro-democracy campaigners for subversion: Benny Tai, 60, and Joshua Wong, 28, were among the so-called Hong Kong 47 group of activists and lawmakers who were involved in a plan to pick opposition candidates for local elections. This was the biggest trial under the national security law (NSL) which China imposed on the city shortly after explosive pro-democracy protests in 2019. Observers say the NSL and the trial's outcome have significantly weakened the city’s pro-democracy movement and rule of law, allowing China to cement its control of the former British colony. (BBC)
2. UK Farmers’ protest: Why are farm owners demonstrating over inheritance tax?: As many as 40,000 people are estimated to attend the event, forcing police and organizers to move the location from Trafalgar Square last-minute. They will be gathering to protest Labour’s announced changes to inheritance tax (IHT) which will change how agricultural assets are taxed. From April 2026, landowners who inherit agricultural assets worth more than £1 million will have to pay 20 per cent IHT on them. These assets were previously entirely exempt from the tax under the agricultural property relief law. (IndependentUK)
-US Events-
1. Pennsylvania Supreme Court Orders Election Boards to Stop Counting Illegal Ballots: The Pennsylvania Supreme Court is ordering Boards of Elections throughout the state to follow its previous rulings and not count “mail-in and absentee ballots that fail to comply” with the state election code. As of Monday afternoon, McCormick had a 17,439 advantage over Casey, with more than 95 percent of the vote counted, according to the New York Times election results. Since they are separated by less than half a percentage point, the race will go to a recount. (Breitbart)
2. Veteran who killed Iraqi civilian sentenced to prison for Capitol riot: A former U.S. Army soldier who was court-martialed for fatally shooting a handcuffed civilian in Iraq two decades ago was sentenced on Monday to more than four years in prison for his role in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Edward Richmond Jr. attacked police officers with a metal baton during the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol. Richmond, 41, of Geismar, Louisiana, said he immediately regretted his actions that day. (ArmyTimes)
-Regulatory and Legal-
1. California judge rules DAO members liable under partnership laws: On Nov. 18, Judge Vince Chhabria of the United States District Court for the Northern District of California determined that governing bodies behind Lido DAO qualify as partners under California’s general partnership laws. As a result, members may not avoid liability for the organization’s actions. Miles Jennings said that under the ruling, even posting in forums could be enough to hold DAO members liable for other members’ actions under the general partnership laws. (CoinTelegraph)
-Central Bank Digital Currencies/World Currencies-
1. Satoshi Action Fund Open-Sources Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Model, Hints at Executive Order Implementation: Dennis Porter, CEO and co-founder of the Satoshi Action Fund, recently announced the open-sourcing of a document for enacting Strategic Bitcoin Reserve laws internationally. He stated that several lawmakers are using the legislative model and that a related executive order to implement it could be on its way. (BitcoinCom)
-Institutional Concerns-
1. Bitcoin Topples Saudi Aramco To Become World's 7th Largest Asset By Market Cap: Data from CompaniesMarketCap shows that as of early Tuesday, Bitcoin's total market cap has reached $1.817 trillion, while Saudi Aramco's stands at $1.798 trillion, followed by silver, which has a total market value of $1.765 trillion. (IBTimes)
2. MicroStrategy to raise $1.75B with 0% interest notes to buy Bitcoin: MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is set to raise $1.75 billion from senior convertible notes at a 0% interest rate to buy more BTC. These convertibles are sold at a discount and will instead mature to face value if they are not converted prior to the maturity date — which is 2029 in MicroStrategy’s case. They’re also “senior” to common stock in the sense that holders have priority in the event of bankruptcy or liquidation. MicroStrategy could buy another 19,065 Bitcoin at current prices if it were to spend the entire $1.75 billion on Bitcoin. (CoinTelegraph)
3. Bitcoin on Exchanges Hits Lowest Level Since November 2018: According to data from Cryptoquant, the amount of bitcoin held on exchanges has dropped to approximately 2.58 million coins. This represents a substantial decrease from the peak levels observed in 2021 during the previous bull run. (BItcoinCom)
-Economic Indicators-
1. US 10-Year Treasury Yield Retreats on Flight To Safety: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined to 4.37% on Tuesday, retreating from the nearly five-month high of 4.45% reached last week, as investors sought safer assets amid growing concerns over an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. (TradingEconomics)
2. US October Budget Deficit Swells 287% To $257 Billion: According to a report by the Treasury Department released on Wednesday, the figure was a sharp increase of 287% from October 2023's $67 billion deficit. Federal receipts for October 2024 slid 19% year-over-year to $327 billion. Outlays increased by 24% to $584 billion. (IBTimes)
-Security Incidents and Concerns-
1. Chinese Hackers Exploit T-Mobile and Other U.S. Telecoms in Broader Espionage Campaign: The adversaries, tracked as Salt Typhoon, breached the company as part of a "monthslong campaign" designed to harvest cellphone communications of "high-value intelligence targets." "T-Mobile is closely monitoring this industry-wide attack, and at this time, T-Mobile systems and data have not been impacted in any significant way, and we have no evidence of impacts to customer information," a spokesman said. With the latest development, T-Mobile has joined a list of major organizations like AT&T, Verizon, and Lumen Technologies that have been singled out as part of what appears to be a full-blown cyber espionage campaign. (HackerNews)
2. Brazilian YouTube Star Loses Access to $366,000 Bitcoin Stash: Lord Vinheteiro, a popular Brazilian pianist on YouTube, has been hospitalized due to losing access to a Bitcoin stash worth over $366,000. He tweeted about losing his BTC wallet password and searched for the backup in his home library, facing challenges in recovery. (Decrypt)
-Technology and Science-
1. China Long March 9 Rocket Looks Awfully Like SpaceX's Starship, Fully Reusable Too: A recent airshow in Zhuhai, China officially unveiled its first 'super heavy lift rocket' called the Long March 9, and this has been revealed after almost a decade since it was introduced, now looking eerily similar to SpaceX's Starship. Initially, the rocket was a three-stage machine that featured motors on its side, but its latest development turned it into a two-stage spacecraft like the American-made one. Moreover, the Chinese rocket has also made a significant shift to turning it into a more modern launch vehicle as one of the rockets is fully reusable, almost turning it into the renowned Starship. (TechTimes)
-Bitcoin Community-
1. Softwar author Jason Lowery applies for White House role advising on Bitcoin national security: Jason Lowery, a major in the U.S. Space Force, has submitted an application to serve as a military advisor on the National Security Council (NSC) and the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy (OSTP). “My goal is to advise the Department of Defense on the national strategic significance of Proof-of-Work (PoW) technology and provide senior leaders with policy recommendations related to a strategic Bitcoin stockpile and the U.S. Hash Force.”, Lowery posted on X. (CryptoSlate)
2. Marathon Digital upsizes debt offering to $1 billion for Bitcoin expansion: The firm initially aimed to raise $700 million but increased the offering to $980 million in response to investor demand. (CryptoSlate)
-Bitcoin Sentiment-
1. Fear(0)/Greed(100) Index: 90/100 (Up 7 pts)
Analyst Comments (AC): Bitcoiners have used the term 'game theory' to describe the competition for scarce bitcoin by nation-states and large institutions in acquiring the asset. The concept comes from early economic theory, formalized in math and political theory, where 'players' learn to optimize outcomes based on other players' decisions and where the 'first-mover advantage' often cements a win. Although intuitive in nature, game theory has rational fundamentals and in the case of bitcoin, the 'players' gain first-mover advantage once they begin to understand the values of bitcoin and move to acquire it. With Marathon Digital, MicroStrategy, the USA, El Salvador, Bhutan, and many more now using whatever assets they have available to buy as much as possible, the game theory of bitcoin phase is now starting to gain traction. Although holders of bitcoin will enjoy the resulting increases in price, analysis should continue on the purposes of various actors in acquiring bitcoin reserves, hashing power, and the methods used in acquiring it. If bitcoin indeed becomes the most valuable asset available in the near future, what are the limits of the 'game' and to what end?
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Analyst: BV2A
END REPORT
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*NSTR-Nothing Significant To Report
