Shen: Yet another Russian ship destroyed by the Ukrainians. This one appears to have been attacked via air strike shortly after Christmas. I have spoken of lessons learned. It is often cautioned "Don't fight the last war." Trying to predict what factors will be decisive in an unfought war is difficult. However, given the activity in the Red and Black Seas, it appears anti-access/ area denial weapons are currently stronger than what Navies can bring to bear. In the age of sail, parking powerful ships of the line off the coast of a less developed country could often cow them into submission. Now, a less developed nation can saturate you with cheap attacks from drones or missiles, and either force you to expend expensive countermeasures or destroy you. This is a data point that China will certainly study. China has invested heavily in A2/AD capabilities. It is uncertain if any adversary could approach safely, no matter how advanced. Are they seeing a limited window where they might have an advantage in a Taiwan scenario? #russia #ukrain #china #taiwan image generated with hotpot.ai

Randolph: Teddy Roosevelt said, "Comparison is the thief of joy." You may be glad you started a gym membership. But you can't lift 1pl8. Oh, you can? Great. But it's not 3pl8. Oh, you're pretty strong. But are you making millions as a fitness influencer? No? Do you even lift, bro? In my line of work, here's how that looks. Oh, you got your Ranger tab? Great, but you're not Special Forces. Oh, you made it to the teams? Too bad you're not Tier 1. Oh, you are? That's pretty high speed. It's just too bad you don't have perfect intel on all the bad guys and good guys. Too bad you can't do an airborne infiltration regardless of how sophisticated the air defense is in the area. Too bad you can't always sneak in and deliver the package without detection. Are you even Santa, bro? #happyholidays #seasonsgreetings #merrychristmas image generated with hotpot.ai

ttps://web.archive.org/web/20231222055323/

U.S. and Europe Eye Russian Assets to Aid Ukraine as Funding Dries Up (Published 2023)

Despite legal reservations, policymakers are weighing the consequences of using $300 billion in Russian assets to help Kyiv’s war effort.

Gustav: As I am visiting the Christmas Markets, I am wondering what would happen if a country froze and then seized Norwegian Assets. Could I afford to buy anything here? Could the merchants come out and set up their stalls? The incentives are all there; another country has control of and access to your capital. They gain, and you lose. Countries' relationships constantly change. DeGaulle said, "Countries don't have friends, only interests." Even among enemies, this type of thing is generally forbidden. There is, or at least there was, an understanding that destroying the ability to hold treasury assets across borders can easily spread. Arguments to return to a gold standard should take this into account. Many countries rely upon the United States to custody their gold reserves. The logistics of moving large amounts of gold is difficult in the best of times. Yet another use case for Bitcoin. #bitcoin #planb #treasuryreserve #globalfinance #russia image generated with hotpot.ai

Frank: Hohoho! Time to put up the decorations. Everyone's favorite time of year! Bah humbug! A light's out. These always take forever to fix! Smitty says to get some with the new LEDs, but his idea of decorating is to change the background on his phone. (Much time fiddling around passes) Finally! 1 busted filament, 50 bulbs to go through, a million tangled wires, and a partridge in a pear tree. (Plugging in the lights) Ho ho oh no! I put them up backwards! 🤣🤣🤣 Well, syadiloH yppaH everyone!😢 #happyholidays image generated with hotpot.ai

Skye: You know how kids used to be like, "Why do I have to learn calculus? I'm never going to need to use it!" Well, people are starting to say pretty much all jobs are going to be done by AI in the near future. So what are we even going to school for anymore? Like, what are we going to do? Nothing. Anyways, Chrismas Break started, so I'm going to practice that. #AI #feeltheagi #LLM #IMF #automation #singularity #christmasbreak image generated with hotpot.ai

https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/ Shen: Moves by some to prevent a sitting US President from withdrawing from NATO. Some analysts like Peter Zeihan @zeihanongeopolitics posit that as the globe destabilizes, the United States will draw back into itself. There is a vision of a time long ago when manufacturing for North America was almost all done on the continent. North America is one of the very few places on the Earth where this is a possibility. Food, energy, and strategic resources are all available in self-sufficient quantities. The infrastructure and geography support it. However, is this happening? Is the US shutting bases in the Middle East? Rotating large numbers of troops out of Germany or South Korea? Taking its fleet from Japan to Hawaii and California? I see no evidence of this; hopefully Zeihan is wrong. #NATO #alliance #taiwan #peterzeihan #isolationism image generated with hotpot.ai