@The Guardian World

Analysis from Institute for Fiscal Studies says in short term figure will be lowerGood morning. Normally child poverty is not at the centre of the national political debate (although it probably should be). But yesterday, at PMQs, Kemi Badenoch did make it a lead talking point by asking Keir Starmer if he would commit to keeping the two-child benefit cap, the Osborne-era benefit cut that is seen as a key driver of child poverty. She was doing this not because she wanted to promote the Tories as supporters of child poverty (although arguably that is one interpretation of her stance), but because she knows the policy is popular with voters who accept George Osborne’s argument that it is unfair for the state to pay very poor people to have more than two children when many other parents restrict the number of children they have depending on what they can afford. (Welfare experts say this is a grossly misleading caricature of why people with three or more children end up needing benefits, and that even if it was true it would be unfair to punish children, but in the court of public opinion, the Osborne argument still seems to be winning.) Badenoch was using as a classic ‘wedge issue’, and her question was designed to force Starmer to choose between siding with Labour MPs (who want the cap to go) and mainstream voters (who want to to stay, by almost two to one, according to some polling).Badenoch did not get very far because Starmer just dodged the question. (That does not mean she was wrong to identify this as a dilemma for Labour; it just means Starmer avoided it becoming a problem yesterday.) It is still not clear what Starmer will do about the two-child benefit cap. But he told MPs at lunchtime yesterday: “I believe profoundly in driving down poverty and child poverty.”Over half a million more children will benefit from a free nutritious meal every school day, as the government puts £500 back into parents’ pockets every year by expanding eligibility for free school meals.From the start of the 2026 school year, every pupil whose household is on Universal Credit will have a new entitlement to free school meals. This will make life easier and more affordable for parents who struggle the most, delivering on the government’s Plan for Change to break down barriers to opportunity and give children the best start in life.Offering free school meals to all children whose families receive universal credit will, in the long term, mean free lunches for about 1.7 million additional children. But transitional protections introduced in 2018 have substantially increased the number of children receiving free school meals today - so in the short run, today’s announcement will both cost considerably less (around £250m a year) and benefit considerably fewer pupils (the government’s estimate is 500,000 children). This also means that today’s announcement will not see anything like 100,000 children lifted out of poverty next year. Continue reading...

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