The MicroStrategy #bitcoin playbook works for companies with steady, recurring cashflows. SaaS works. Oil and gas E&P works. Logistics works. Bitcoin mining? Not so much. Cashflows are too volatile to cover the debt obligations. I’m skeptical of MARA’s recent announcement. Makes me think they’re working to offset some short term liquidity issues. Also, they’ll use the added liquidity (if they can secure it) to ride this next bitcoin bull run and likely enter into a different business (i.e. energy). But the MicroStrategy playbook works because MicroStrategy can DCA and smash buy without reliance on bitcoin price for their cashflows. This won’t end well for MARA without some major adjustments to their business model.

In 1971, the world moved from a gold standard to a real estate-backed credit standard.

Miners have to be feeling this low hash price … how many secured flexible credit financing (i.e. revolvers) to weather the immediate post-halving storm? If everyone has the fiat financing, does that just stave off the mass capitulation for later?

First rule of negotiation: Control the clock.