Reporting-Cycle Suppression EXPLAINED
* Q4 reporting incentivises price stability or downside,
* Unrealised losses look better if volatility is muted,
* Large desks lean on derivatives + thin retail books to keep spot pinned,
* Retail gets shaken out, order books hollow, funding bleeds off,
That creates the condition:
oversold retail books + suppressed spot + exhausted sellers.
Once filings are locked:
* No incentive to cap upside,
* Hedging rolls off,
* Short gamma flips,
* Spot demand doesnโt need much volume to move price,
At that point the price will move fast and everyone will pretend it was โunexpectedโ but it wonโt be magic, itโll be permission. See, markets donโt move when people realise things. They move when constraints are lifted.
Right now the constraints are:
* reporting optics
* risk committees
* headline management
* derivatives used to keep spot โorderlyโ
Once Q4 is closed:
* nobody needs to defend a narrative
* hedges come off
* upside becomes acceptable again
For HODLers this is the timne to stack hard, really hard! For traders this is the time for discipline. Remember: "Being right early feels good, being right and patient pays."
Once filings are in and restraints are being removed - thatโs when the price gaps and the news will say things like "Momentum returned" or "Risk appetite improved" but they wont tell you WHY. In times like these stay mentally detached until the constraint expires. You'll avoid overtrading the suppression phase and youโre positioned when the move actually matters.
When it breaks, it wonโt validate you. Itโll expose them. Oh and, it's a good thing that this Bitcoin cycle hasn't been captured by wall street. *punt*
