In the next couple of weeks ALL wall street firms with Bitcoin exposure - AND treasury companies - will announce their unrealised loss for Q4 of 2025. When that FUD hits the news remember, almost all of them are in the green down to ~60k. It's end of the year "accounting magic". Once that's done watch how Bitcoin will magically do it's thing again.
I'll leave this here for now so I can get back to it later when their numbers drop.
Baseline:
→ Uses last known average acquisition costs disclosed by firms
→ ETFs assumed to track spot (unrealised P/L ≈ neutral)
→ “Unrealised loss” only counted where avg dollar cost > $87,140
🏢 Public Bitcoin Treasury Companies
→ MicroStrategy (MSTR)
→ Avg cost est.: ~$35–40k
→ BTC held: ~190k+
→ Unrealised loss: $0 (large unrealised gain)
→ Tesla (TSLA)
→ Avg cost est.: ~$43k
→ BTC held: ~9.7k
→ Unrealised loss: $0
→ Coinbase (COIN)
→ Avg cost est.: <$30k
→ BTC held: ~9k
→ Unrealised loss: $0
→ Marathon Digital (MARA)
→ Avg cost est.: <$25k (mined BTC)
→ BTC held: ~16k+
→ Unrealised loss: $0
→ Riot Platforms (RIOT)
→ Avg cost est.: <$20k (mined BTC)
→ BTC held: ~8k+
→ Unrealised loss: $0
→ Block Inc. (SQ)
→ Avg cost est.: ~$31k
→ BTC held: ~8k
→ Unrealised loss: $0
Subtotal (Public Treasuries):
→ Estimated unrealised loss: $0
🧾 Spot Bitcoin ETF Firms
→ IBIT (BlackRock)
→ Holdings valued at NAV
→ Unrealised loss: ~$0
→ FBTC (Fidelity)
→ Holdings valued at NAV
→ Unrealised loss: ~$0
→ GBTC (Grayscale)
→ Holdings marked to market
→ Unrealised loss: ~$0
→ (Discount/premium is not an unrealised BTC loss)
→ ARKB / BITB / HODL / BTCO (Others)
→ Spot-backed, market-priced
→ Unrealised loss: ~$0
Subtotal (ETFs):
→ Estimated unrealised loss: $0
🧮 Aggregate Estimate
→ Total unrealised loss (public BTC holders + ETFs):
→ ≈ $0
At $87k BTC, virtually all major public holders are deeply in profit, not underwater.
