a very simple theory yet it cuts deeper than most people realize. bitcoin’s outcome’s binary. either it trends toward infinity or it collapses to zero. most likely it won’t go to zero and it won’t ever be replaced because any successor would inherit a fatal flaw the moment it’s born. if you can replace money once, you can replace it again, and that destroys all trust, so it’s not about a better tech. hal articulated this very nicely. whats unique about bitcoin is that it has solved that final coordination problem which is the biggest challenge of getting the entire world to agree on a single digital monetary standard that no one can change, no one can remake, and no one can reset. the path is basically one direction.
$6 to $7k moves in a day became normal for bitcoin. remember this was the whole btc price like 5 yrs ago. give it a few years and that same move will happen every half hour.
ai is deflationary. very soon
probably within the next 5-6 yrs, the money supply to debt ratio vs business productivity will completely flip meaning productivity output will grow far faster than the expansion of money or debt. in that environment bitcoin absorbs productivity surplus and can be the best vehicle to store the excess value created.
