From Formula to Scarcity: Stock-to-Flow.
Bitcoin is scarce.
This phrase is often repeated but rarely explained.
In economics, scarcity is not an opinion; it is a numerical ratio.
Every material or digital asset has two fundamental quantities:
Stock: The quantity already in existence.
Flow is the quantity added each year.
The ratio of the two, stock-to-flow, defines the monetary hardness of an asset.
The higher the ratio, the more resistant the asset is to inflation; that is, it is difficult to expand its total quantity.
In the case of Bitcoin, monetary inflation is defined as "flow over stock."
Therefore, the stock-to-flow ratio is the inverse of inflation.
It's a simple yet powerful relationship:
What is fragility (inflation) for currencies becomes robustness (scarcity) for Bitcoin.
Each halving event cuts the "flow," or the annual creation of new bitcoins, in half.
The "stock," on the other hand, continues to increase until it reaches the limit of 21 million.
The result is a stock-to-flow ratio that grows in a deterministic manner over time.
Between 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin inflation was 12.5%, and the stock-to-flow ratio was 8.
Today, inflation is 0.83%, and the stock-to-flow ratio is 120.
With the next halving in 2028, inflation will fall to 0.4%, and the stock-to-flow ratio will be 250.
This relationship between inflation and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio will persist until 2140, when inflation will reach zero and the stock-to-flow ratio will become virtually infinite.
Currently, Bitcoin surpasses gold in monetary hardness; gold has a stock-to-flow ratio of around 60–70, whereas Bitcoin is already over 120. At the current rate, it would take 120 years to double the stock of Bitcoin.
Scarcity is not a privilege; it is a form of equality.
In a system where issuance is equal for all, no one can "inflate" the time or labor of others.
Stock-to-flow does not measure price; rather, it measures the fairness of economic time. The higher the stock-to-flow ratio, the more wealth retains its value over time.
Every bitcoin is created with the same amount of energy and follows the same rules.
This distinguishes it from any currency created by decree.
In 2019, an analyst known as PlanB popularized a model correlating Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio with its market value.
The model is now criticized and, in part, outdated.
It does not predict price; rather, it describes the consistency of the scarcity mechanism.
Bitcoin is valuable not because it costs money, but because it retains its value over time.
Each block added is a unit of order against the entropy of the global economic system.
Stock-to-flow is not just a technical indicator.
It is a numerical measure of programmed trust. The more it grows, the harder the network is to manipulate.
In Bitcoin, scarcity is not a flaw in the code but rather its most human function.
Once the quantity can no longer grow, the responsibility to use it well increases.
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