Every complex system is one black swan away from revealing it was duct tape all along. Supply chains, financial systems, social trust. It works until suddenly it extremely very much doesn't.

Every crisis is "unprecedented" because we only prepare for precedented ones. Because - and bear with me - they're precedented.

The lag between inventing something and understanding its consequences is roughly 10 years. Social media (2010→2020), smartphones (2007→2017). That lag is about to get shorter.