Some of my thoughts on what interest rates would look like under a Bitcoin standard? π
In a free market under hard money, the actual or market interest rate depends on various factors, in particular the supply and demand for capital.
When the supply of capital exceeds demand, the market interest rate falls, while it rises when demand exceeds supply. The market interest rate is therefore the price at which capital is exchanged on the market.
A net interest rate would likely emerge naturally. We can assume that the interest rate would reflect the general time preference of people in the economy. Under a Bitcoin standard, interest rates would likely be higher, as the risk of capital loss is higher with a finite money such as bitcoin than with a fiat currency. This will likely result in higher interest rates being demanded to compensate for the higher risk.
Under a fiat standard, the "risk-free" interest rate is tied to inflation. A US Treasury bond with a yield of 5-6% would be considered risk-free, among other things, because the yield theoretically compensates for the loss of purchasing power that fiat money experiences.
More importantly, the "risk-free" interest rate component of fiat money refers to a country's risk of default, which is generally considered very unlikely since states are able to produce money βendlesslyβ.
The term "risk-free" is misleading. It does not exist per se. Opportunity costs exist always and everywhere and the market interest rate depends on various factors, including the risk of capital loss.
There is also a historical certainty that any fiat currency will eventually go to zero, which is often not reflected in the fiat market's "risk-free" interest rate.
Under a Bitcoin standard, the lowest risk component relates to the risk of loss of bitcoin held in self-custody. When stored in cold storage, those bitcoin are the holderβs alone and not in danger of confiscation or inflation by third parties.
The lowest risk return for #bitcoin is directly related to productivity. Since bitcoin is finite, the value of individual units increases with human productivity. There is a risk of not participating in the increase in the value of bitcoin (deflation) in the event of a loss. The interest rate on a loan under a Bitcoin standard would likely be the deflation rate plus a risk premium to compensate for the potential loss of bitcoin.
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