Here’s a flashback. 1996. The Shanghai Bund. Pollution has improved immensely.

The architectural contrasts of this city never ceases to amaze me.

I’m more obsessed with checking the hashrate than the price. For me it’s the only data point that matters.

It’s Friday and I thought the video below would provide some much needed levity. Have a great weekend people!!

My new mantra “Fuck You! Make me!”

China Morning Missive There seems to be a new term flying around the social media universe. “Escalation dominance”. Basically, it’s just a fancy way of saying China has far greater negotiating leverage as compared to the United States. Well, this bilateral imbalance has been at the core of the Notes I’ve been putting out for the past six months. My very succinct summary is this. China produces everything and America produces nothing. I’m not here to beat on America and China is most certainly working through its own issues. When you step back though and look at both parties on a net-net basis there is no other conclusion to draw than that of trade terms being dictated by China. Here is the best real-world example that I can give. To start, the current imbalance is the result of a three-decade period where multinational groups aggressively outsourced production to China. You hear this all the time. China hollowed out middle America. What doesn’t seem to get enough attention is that this entire imbalance was loudly telegraphed back in 2018 during Trump 1.0 and yet no corrective action was taken at that time. Just consider Apple as one example. Tim Cook knew at the time the precarious nature of Apple’s manufacturing dependence on China. Did he decided to marshal the company’s ample cash hoard and take aggressive steps to diversify away from China? Of course he didn’t. Such action would have tanked the stock. All that Time Cook did was accelerate the company’s share buyback program. For those who may doubt, I am a Red-Blooded American. There is, however, a reality that cannot be ignored. Like it or not, a very deep hole has been dug, and the first order of business is to stop digging. This then means that a collaborative relationship with China is the only option …. for now. A system based on financialization must shift aggressively to one centered on reindustrialization. It’ll take time, but as the old Chinese adage goes, “The best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best time is today.” https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/12/china-defiance-trump-100-tariff-00605499

Ok, for those who have seen this content below, and with the greatest respect to @HODL, this information is patently false. Moreover, this trope - all of what Peterson claims - has been promlagated by more podcast hosts and guest than I can recall. I jaywalk all the time and there’s been no consequence and there’s certainly been no deduction of any cash from my bank account. And having your face plastered in public? Are you serious. First off, there aren’t that number of screens and whatever screens are out there are a blaze with commercials and marketing. Here is what I can share. If you do happen to share “sensitive” content on any of the various social media platforms you will receive a message to refrain from any such future commentary. If you continue, then your social media account will be suspended. I believe that this has happened more than a few times in the US and, well, just look at the UK at the moment. When it comes to third party commentary on China, my recommendation is to always question whether than commentator has been to China at any point in the recent past. I’ve found that most people haven’t been to China in at least six years, pre-Covid times. What we have is an ecosystem where errant tropes, that so beautifully align with hardened biases, are picked up and then repeated over and over again to the point that, well, it is all taken as truth. My suggestion to everyone is to tread skeptically when consuming content on China by individuals who, themselves, are only passing on second hand information. Do the same too, have a raised eyebrow with people like myself. Just don’t take what you see as gospel. The only way to know with the utmost confidence is to get on a plane and come to China to see for yourself. Make up your own mind. View quoted note →

The Chinese game MahJong, specifically the Shanghai version, provides some unique cultural insights. Uploading the video below for those interested.

China Morning Missive There is always more that hides behind the public veil. Recall when the US and China met in London in June. The parties left the talks and the entire conversation centered on China’s agreement to resume exports of rare earth materials. There was zero commentary as to what the US side would deliver in return. Within a matter of a single week the quid pro quo became known. The US would begin lifting certain technology related export controls. This very same dynamic is at play with the recent trade talks in Madrid. While the focus has centered on China approving the sale of the US TikTok platform, there’s been zero focus on what the US would deliver in return. Now we have the highly expected move by China to begin purchases of American soybeans. As background, China is the single largest export market for American soybeans with, for reference, $13bn in exports, or roughly 20% of all production, in 2024. For this year, China has purchased zero American soybeans. The harvest has now arrive and the farmers are desperate. China has now returned to the table and it is highly likely for a large purchase agreement to be announced in the coming weeks. That then means China has “delivered” for American twice. All of this begs the question. What is it that the Trump team has delivered which would be of an equitable value. I will say it again. The deliverable is Taiwan.

Bloomberg.com

US Crop Markets Rise as Chinese Trade Envoy Meets US Delegation

Most US crop markets traded higher following an announcement from China that a trade envoy from the nation met with a delegation of US political an...

Call schedule at 9am EST less than an hour from now. Expecting Trump and Xi to announce a TikTok deal and even a sizable buy of soybeans by China. Question remains …. What does China get in return? An announced trip to China by Trump at the end of October is my best guess. Behind the scenes though, China will get a recommitment of the One China policy. TikTok for Taiwan essentially.

Bloomberg.com

Trump, Xi to Hold Call as TikTok, Tariffs and Nvidia Loom Large

A call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is underway, in a discussion that promises to determine the fate of TikTo...